甲醇月报：短期回落风险仍存-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the first half of the month traded on the logic of weak reality, with port inventories continuing to accumulate at high levels and spot prices accelerating their decline. At the end of the month, with the confirmation of news about Iranian plant maintenance, the market started to trade on the logic of expected improvement, and both spot and futures prices bottomed out and rebounded. The monthly spread and basis strengthened, and market expectations reversed [11]. - The supply side remained at a high level in November, with domestic methanol production reaching 8.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. Affected by the decline in methanol spot prices, the profits of inland enterprises have returned to the seasonal neutral level. The arrival volume in November was 1.467 million tons, a month - on - month decline but still at a high level year - on - year. The arrival volume in December is expected to remain at a high level [11]. - On the demand side, olefin demand increased slightly, but there are expectations of port plant maintenance in the future, so there is a risk of demand decline. Traditional demand entered the off - season, showing overall weakness with generally low profit levels [11]. - In terms of valuation, with the realization of positive factors, both the basis and monthly spread have strengthened. The port MTO ratio first rose and then fell, currently at a neutral level. The overall valuation of methanol is relatively neutral [11]. - In November, port inventories decreased by nearly 140,000 tons, and the current inventory is 1.349 million tons, with the absolute inventory level still relatively high. Enterprise inventories decreased by 2,300 tons, and the current inventory is 360,000 tons, at a low level year - on - year [11]. - After the positive factors were realized, the futures market fell into short - term consolidation again. With the high inventory, there is still pressure on prices. The market is expected to be mainly in low - level consolidation, and the strategy recommends waiting and seeing [11]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Summary: In November, the market first traded on weak reality and then on expected improvement. Spot and futures prices bottomed out and rebounded, and market expectations reversed [11]. - Fundamentals: High supply, with domestic production at a high level and expected high arrival volume in December. Demand has risks of decline, especially for olefins due to potential port plant maintenance. Traditional demand is weak. Valuation is relatively neutral, and inventory levels are mixed, with high port inventory and low enterprise inventory [11]. - Market Logic: After the positive factors from overseas plant shutdowns were realized, the market fell into consolidation. There is still a risk of short - term weakening in the fundamentals, and high inventory exerts pressure on prices [11]. - Strategy: Recommend waiting and seeing [11]. 3.2 Period - Spot Market - The document provides multiple charts related to the methanol period - spot market, including the term structure, prices in Jiangsu, 01 contract basis, 1 - 5 spread, as well as the trading volume and open interest of the 01 contract and the total trading volume and open interest of methanol [20][22][25]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Profit - related: Charts show the prices of IPE UK natural gas, NYMEX natural gas, and power coal, as well as the profit calculations of coal - based and gas - based methanol production in different regions [31][34][39]. - Inventory - related: Port inventory is showing a slowdown in destocking. There are also charts about regional inventories, including华东,华南, and enterprise inventories, as well as inventory projections and warehouse receipts [41][42][47]. 3.4 Supply Side - Domestic and Overseas Production: Charts show the domestic methanol operating rate, weekly production, and overseas methanol operating rate [50]. - Import Volume: There are charts about the import volume and its projection, as well as the import volume from Iran, Oman, and Saudi Arabia [52][56]. - Arrival Volume: The arrival volume has rebounded to a high level, with charts showing the arrival volume in China, East China, and South China [61][62][64]. - Price Spreads: There are charts about import profits, international price spreads between China and other regions, and domestic regional price spreads [66][70]. - Domestic Freight: Charts show the freight prices of methanol transportation in different routes [78]. 3.5 Demand Side - Demand Projection: Charts show the consumption volume and ending inventory [82]. - Methanol - to - Olefins: Include the operating rate of olefins, the operating rate of MTO in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and the profits of related enterprises [84][85][89]. - PP Production Profits: Show the production profits of PP through different processes [93]. - MTO - related Spreads: Include spreads such as PP - 3MA, LL - 3MA, EG - 2MA, etc. [96]. - Other Downstream Products: Include the operating rate and profit of acetic acid, formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, MTBE, and the capacity utilization rate of 1,4 - butanediol, as well as the downstream demand proportion of methanol [104][106][109]. - Downstream Inventory: There is a chart about the inventory of downstream manufacturers [112]. - Relative Prices: Include the relative prices of methanol with urea, INE crude oil, power coal, and EG [114]. 3.6 Option - related - The document provides charts about the open interest, trading volume, open interest PCR, trading volume PCR, and volatility of methanol options [118][120]. 3.7 Industry Structure Diagram - There are charts about the methanol industry chain and a mind - map of the methanol research framework analysis [123][125].