铅月报：库存延续去库，宏观氛围积极-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the lead price rose first and then fell. From November 3rd to December 4th, the weighted Shanghai lead contract closed down 0.81% to 17,240 yuan/ton, and the total open interest of Shanghai lead dropped significantly by 39,600 lots to 80,100 lots. The domestic lead ingot inventory decreased, with the current social inventory only at 21,600 tons, and the deliverable goods were relatively scarce. The lead ore's visible inventory increased, but the primary smelting operating rate declined, while the secondary smelting operating rate continued to rise. The weekly operating rate of downstream battery enterprises increased marginally. Considering the positive sentiment in the non - ferrous metal industry during the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, it is expected that the lead price will be strong in the short term [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - Price Review: From November 3rd to December 4th, the weighted Shanghai lead contract closed down 0.81% to 17,240 yuan/ton, and the total open interest dropped by 39,600 lots to 80,100 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingot was 17,100 yuan/ton, the average price of secondary refined lead was 17,075 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap spread was 25 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,875 yuan/ton [11]. - Domestic Structure: The domestic social inventory decreased to 21,600 tons. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 16,600 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 70 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract was - 25 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 253,200 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 128,800 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 43.64 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 90.6 US dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.218, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 240.61 yuan/ton [11]. - Industry Data: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory was 32,000 tons, the factory inventory was 474,000 tons, equivalent to 30.7 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - 135 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton. The primary operating rate was 65.32%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 9,000 tons. At the secondary end, the lead scrap inventory was 102,000 tons, the weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 46,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 7,000 tons. The lead - acid battery operating rate at the demand end was 73.39% [11]. 3.2 Primary Supply - Raw Material Supply: In October 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 98,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of - 39.7% and a month - on - month change of - 34.6%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 1.1673 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.0%. The net import of silver concentrate in October was 149,400 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 11.4% and a month - on - month change of - 7.0%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1.5079 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.4%. The domestic lead concentrate output in October was 146,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 10.6% and a month - on - month change of - 3.4%. From January to October, the total lead concentrate production was 1.3953 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 11.4%. The net import of lead - containing ores in October was 118,700 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 21.6% and a month - on - month change of - 23.2%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1.3035 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.9% [15][17]. - Total Supply: In October 2025, the total supply of Chinese lead concentrate was 264,900 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 6.6% and a month - on - month change of - 13.4%. From January to October, the cumulative supply of lead concentrate was 2.6988 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.7%. In September 2025, the global lead ore output was 392,800 tons, a year - on - year change of - 2.1% and a month - on - month change of 2.4%. From January to September, the total lead ore production was 3.4021 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.5% [19]. - Inventory and Processing Fees: The lead concentrate port inventory was 32,000 tons, the factory inventory was 474,000 tons, equivalent to 30.7 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - 135 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - Smelting and Production: The primary operating rate was 65.32%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 9,000 tons. In October 2025, the domestic primary lead output was 326,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 2.7% and a month - on - month change of - 0.5%. From January to October, the total primary lead ingot production was 3.1869 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.7% [26]. 3.3 Secondary Supply - Raw Materials and Weekly Output: The lead scrap inventory at the secondary end was 102,000 tons. The weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 46,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 7,000 tons. In October 2025, the domestic secondary lead output was 346,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 11.9% and a month - on - month change of 9.2%. From January to October, the total secondary lead ingot production was 3.2351 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7% [31][33]. - Total Supply and Trade: In October 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 15,100 tons, a year - on - year change of 92.6% and a month - on - month change of 21.9%. From January to October, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 95,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 43.5%. In October 2025, the domestic total lead ingot supply was 687,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.3% and a month - on - month change of 4.6%. From January to October, the domestic cumulative lead ingot supply was 6.5172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.8% [35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - Battery Operating Rate and Apparent Demand: The lead - acid battery operating rate was 73.39%. In October 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 689,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.9% and a month - on - month change of - 4.1%. From January to October, the domestic cumulative apparent demand for lead ingots was 6.5264 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.9% [40]. - Battery Exports: In October 2025, the net export quantity of batteries was 1.61452 million, the net export weight was 84,600 tons, and the estimated net export of lead in batteries was 52,900 tons, a year - on - year change of - 15.1% and a month - on - month change of - 12.8%. From January to October, the total net export of lead in batteries was 607,600 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries had a year - on - year change of - 5.0% [43]. - Inventory Days: In October 2025, the finished product inventory days of lead - acid battery factories increased from 19.7 days to 24.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers increased from 39.7 days to 41 days [45]. - Terminal Demand: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly affected new - installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeout improved the new - installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand was expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles were gradually replacing lead - acid starting batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles ensured a high replacement demand. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations driven by the development of communication technology steadily increased the demand for lead - acid batteries [49][51][54]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - Domestic Supply - Demand Gap: In October 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 2,400 tons, and from January to October, the domestic cumulative lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 9,200 tons [63]. - Overseas Supply - Demand Gap: In September 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 48,900 tons, and from January to September, the overseas cumulative refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 1,700 tons [66]. 3.6 Price Outlook - Domestic Structure: The domestic social inventory decreased to 21,600 tons. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 16,600 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 70 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract was - 25 yuan/ton [71]. - Overseas Structure: The LME lead ingot inventory was 253,200 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 128,800 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 43.64 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 90.6 US dollars/ton [74]. - Cross - Market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.218, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 240.61 yuan/ton [77]. - Position Analysis: The net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead decreased slightly, the net long position of investment funds in London lead decreased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From a position perspective, the short - term guidance was bullish [80].