铁矿石月报：关注宏观窗口兑现节点-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December, iron ore supply is expected to remain strong, with shipments and arrivals higher than the same period in previous years. Vale is expected to reach the upper limit of its annual production target range. [11][14] - After the traditional peak season, due to the combined impact of poor downstream demand and profits, the number of blast furnace overhauls in steel mills has gradually increased, and the daily output has dropped to about 2.35 million tons, a decline from November. The proportion of profitable steel mills is less than 40%. [11][14] - Port inventories are on an upward trend. Under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, there is still pressure to accumulate inventories before the Spring Festival. However, the structural contradiction of inventories has not been effectively resolved, so the spot market is expected to have some support despite high inventories. [11][14] - In November, the market entered a macro vacuum period, and the disk logic was mainly inclined to industrial reality. There are certain expectations in the market before the macro window in December. Overall, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Considering the expected loose supply pattern in 2026 and the lack of imagination on the demand side, if important meetings do not provide positive information for the black metal market, there may be phased downward pressure within the trading range. [11][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: In November, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments was 32.9675 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 123,100 tons. The weekly average of Australian shipments to China through 19 ports was 15.758 million tons, a decrease of 138,400 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazilian shipments was 8.2403 million tons, a decrease of 245,700 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 26.3163 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 526,600 tons. [13] - Demand: The estimated average daily domestic pig iron output in November was 2.353 million tons, a decrease of 41,200 tons from the previous month. [13] - Inventory: At the end of November, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 152.1012 million tons, an increase of 6.6764 million tons from the end of the previous month. The weekly average of the daily ore handling volume at 45 ports was 3.271 million tons, an increase of 82,100 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of the daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills was 2.9061 million tons, a decrease of 60,600 tons from the previous month. [13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price Spreads: At the end of November, the price spread between PB powder and Super Special powder was 111 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 22 yuan/ton. The price spread between Carajás fines and PB powder was 91 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The price spread between Carajás fines and Jinbuba powder was 147 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 22 yuan/ton. The price spread between (Carajás fines + Super Special powder)/2 and PB powder was -10 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 18.5 yuan/ton. [19][22] - Feed Ratio and Scrap Steel: At the end of November, the pellet feed ratio was 14.52%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The lump ore feed ratio was 12.22%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The sinter feed ratio was 73.27%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,155 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month. The price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2,080 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month. [25] - Profit: At the end of November, the profitability rate of steel mills was 35.06%, a decrease of 9.96 percentage points from the end of the previous month. [28] - Freight: No specific data summary provided in the text, only relevant charts are presented. 3.3 Inventory - At the end of November, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 152.1012 million tons, an increase of 6.6764 million tons from the end of the previous month. The pellet inventory was 3.0235 million tons, an increase of 154,300 tons from the end of the previous month. The iron concentrate inventory was 12.8443 million tons, an increase of 1.306 million tons from the end of the previous month. The lump ore inventory was 19.7937 million tons, an increase of 1.1707 million tons from the end of the previous month. The Australian ore inventory at ports was 63.0746 million tons, an increase of 2.9006 million tons from the end of the previous month. The Brazilian ore inventory at ports was 59.8703 million tons, an increase of 2.4316 million tons from the end of the previous month. The inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 89.4248 million tons, an increase of 926,200 tons from the end of the previous month. [35][38][41][43] 3.4 Supply Side - Overseas Shipments: In November, the weekly average of Australian shipments to China through 19 ports was 15.758 million tons, a decrease of 138,400 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazilian shipments was 8.2403 million tons, a decrease of 245,700 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Rio Tinto's shipments was 6.0463 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 759,200 tons. The weekly average of BHP's shipments was 5.872 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 261,600 tons. The weekly average of Vale's shipments was 5.9513 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 317,400 tons. The weekly average of FMG's shipments was 3.9543 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 122,700 tons. [49][52][55] - Arrivals and Imports: In November, the weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 26.3163 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 526,600 tons. In October, China's non-Australian and non-Brazilian iron ore imports were 19.8492 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.2656 million tons. [58] - Domestic Mines: At the end of November, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 60.77%, a decrease of 0.19 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The average daily output of iron concentrate from domestic mines was 474,800 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from the end of the previous month. [61] 3.5 Demand Side - Pig Iron Output: The estimated domestic pig iron output in November was 70.5902 million tons, and the average daily output was 2.353 million tons, a decrease of 41,200 tons from the previous month. At the end of November, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 87.98%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points from the end of the previous month. [66] - Ore Handling and Consumption: In November, the weekly average of the daily ore handling volume at 45 ports was 3.271 million tons, an increase of 82,100 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of the daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 2.9061 million tons, a decrease of 60,600 tons from the previous month. [69] 3.6 Basis - As of November 28, the estimated basis of the main contract of iron ore BRBF was 44.83 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 5.34%. [74]