不锈钢月报：成本下移拉低估值，需求边际有所改善-20251205

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - Stainless steel demand has shown marginal improvement compared to October. Cost decline has pushed spot prices to a stage low, stimulating downstream enterprises to replenish inventory at low prices and attracting speculative bottom - fishing funds. These two factors have jointly promoted the warming of the market trading atmosphere and significantly increased trading activity. However, the pressure of high inventory remains significant. The focus of the subsequent market should be on the actual implementation of steel mills' production cuts. If the supply side can be effectively controlled, the production cut intensity can be increased, or positive signals can be released from the policy side, and combined with the further release of downstream low - level replenishment demand, it is expected to break the current supply - demand deadlock and drive the market to a phased turnaround [11][12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Monthly Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - Price Data: On December 5th, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 12,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +0.00%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 890 yuan/nickel, with a month - on - month change of +0.00%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,550 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +0.60%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,425 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +0.12% [11][16] - Supply Data: In November, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production plan was 1.4126 million tons. In October, the crude steel output was 3.0645 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 million tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to October was 6.48%. In October, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4497 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%; in November, the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 700,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.16% [11][26][29] - Demand Data: From January to October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 719.82 million square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.80%; in October, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 61.4721 million square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 19.60%. In October, the year - on - year changes of refrigerator, household freezer, washing machine, and air - conditioner production were - 3%, - 6%, - 13.5%, and - 2% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase of the fuel processing industry in October was +21.2% [11][39][42] - Inventory Data: The total social inventory of stainless steel last week was 1.0803 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 63,100 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 11,076 tons. The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel last week were 192,000 tons, 664,300 tons, and 224,000 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 0.73% month - on - month; the floating quantity of stainless steel last week was 62,500 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.10%, and the unloading quantity was 94,900 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 10.53% [11][49][52] - Cost Data: The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong last week was 885 yuan/nickel, with a month - on - month increase of 0 yuan/nickel. Iron plants in Fujian are currently losing 144 yuan/nickel [11][59] Futures and Spot Market - Price Changes: The average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi on December 5th was 12,700 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 890 yuan/nickel (unchanged month - on - month), and the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,550 yuan/ton (+0.60% month - on - month). The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,425 yuan/ton (+0.12% month - on - month) [16] - Market Quotes and Positions: The market quotation of Foshan Delong is about - 75 yuan (- 24) higher than the main contract, and that of Wuxi Hongwang is about 75 yuan (- 54) higher than the main contract. The open interest on the disk is 207,125 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.29% [19] - Monthly Spread: The spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 is reported as - 95 (- 25), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 is reported as - 170 (- 40) [22] Supply Side - Domestic Production: In November, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production plan was 1.4126 million tons. In October, the crude steel output was 3.0645 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 million tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to October was 6.48%. In October, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4497 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%; in November, the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 700,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.16% [26][29] - Indonesian Production and Imports: In October, the estimated monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia was 440,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.33%. In October, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 103,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 7.92% [32] - Export Data: In October, the net export volume of stainless steel was 234,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 21.54% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.71%; from January to October, the cumulative net export volume was 1.0809 million tons, 65.78% higher than the same period last year [35] Demand Side - Real Estate: From January to October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 719.82 million square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.80%; in October, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 61.4721 million square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 19.60% [39] - Home Appliances: In October, the year - on - year changes of refrigerator, household freezer, washing machine, and air - conditioner production were - 3%, - 6%, - 13.5%, and - 2% respectively [42] - Other Industries: In October, the cumulative year - on - year increase of the fuel processing industry was +21.2%. In October, the output of elevators, escalators and lifts was 113,000 units, with a month - on - month decrease of 16.30% and a year - on - year change of +0.00%; the automobile sales volume in October was 3.3221 million units, with a month - on - month increase of 2.97% and a year - on - year increase of 8.82% [42][45] Inventory - Total and Futures Inventory: The total social inventory of stainless steel last week was 1.0803 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 63,100 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 11,076 tons [49] - Inventory by Series: The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel last week were 192,000 tons, 664,300 tons, and 224,000 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 0.73% month - on - month. The floating quantity of stainless steel last week was 62,500 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.10%, and the unloading quantity was 94,900 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 10.53% [52] Cost Side - Nickel Ore: In October, the nickel ore import volume was 4.6828 million wet tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 23.50% and a year - on - year increase of 11.81%. The current quotation of Ni:1.5% nickel ore is 56.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 14.8733 million wet tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.83% [56] - Nickel Iron: The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong last week was 885 yuan/nickel, with a month - on - month increase of 0 yuan/nickel. Iron plants in Fujian are currently losing 144 yuan/nickel [59] - Chromium Ore and Ferrochrome: The chromium ore quotation last week was 51 yuan/dry ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/dry ton; the high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,000 yuan/50 base tons, with a month - on - month change of +0 yuan/50 base tons. In November, the high - carbon ferrochrome output was 881,400 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6.84% [62] - Production Profit: The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line is - 857 yuan/ton, and the profit margin reaches - 6.32% [65]