美联储影子主席的预期与现实

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market will be divided into a "buy the expectation" phase before the official appointment of the next Fed Chair in May 2026 and a "sell the reality" phase after the appointment. In the "buy the expectation" phase, the "shadow chair" will guide market expectations towards aggressive rate cuts, leading to specific price movements in major asset classes. In the "sell the reality" phase, the Fed's monetary policy path is likely to be cautious due to various constraints, and the market will shift its focus and face increased volatility. Additionally, the possibility of the Fed expanding its balance sheet in 2026 and its potential impact on the market should also be closely monitored [22][27][29]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs I. Key Events for Focus on Fed Independence - The independence of the Fed is the cornerstone of the US dollar's credit, influencing global capital flows and commodity pricing. Trump has tried to influence the Fed through various means, such as frequent calls for rate cuts, attempts to dismiss Cook, and appointing new理事. The next key points of focus are the selection of the next Fed Chair and the progress of the dismissal case of Cook, which will affect the market's re - evaluation of the Fed's rate - cut path in 2026 [5][8][11]. II. "Advanced Tests" for Fed Chair Candidates 2.1 Selection and Appointment Process of the Fed Chair - The process includes candidate selection and evaluation (July - December 2025), where the candidates have been reduced from 11 to 5; the President's official nomination (January 2026), which signals the President's expectation for future monetary policy; the Senate confirmation process (average 4 months), including hearings, committee voting, and full - Senate voting; and the oath - taking ceremony (May 2026) [13][15][16]. 2.2 "Advanced Tests" for Fed Chair Candidates - Test 1: Candidates must have Fed理事 qualifications. If non -理事 candidates are considered, they may need to fill a即将出现的理事 vacancy first. Key time points to watch are January 21, 2026 (Supreme Court oral debate on Trump's attempt to dismiss Cook) and January 31, 2026 (Miran's理事 term expiration) [18][19]. - Test 2: Senate confirmation faces challenges related to partisan differences and Fed independence. If Hassett is nominated, concerns about his close association with Trump and his past controversial remarks may lead to opposition in the Senate, and the final result depends on the Senate's review and game [20]. III. Market Impact: Expectations and Reality of the Fed's "Shadow Chair" 3.1 "Buy the Expectation" Phase: Before the May 2026 Official Appointment - The "shadow chair" will publicly state an aggressive dovish stance, guiding the market to expect rate cuts. As a result, the US dollar index tends to weaken, US Treasury yields decline, and commodity prices rise, with precious metals being the core target of loose trading. However, conflicts between the "shadow chair" and Powell or setbacks in market expectations may increase asset volatility [27][28]. 3.2 "Sell the Reality" Phase: After the May 2026 Official Appointment - After the new Fed Chair is appointed, the Fed's monetary policy is likely to be "hesitant in decision - making and cautious in implementation" due to economic dual - differentiation, FOMC internal differences, and concerns about Fed independence. The market will shift its focus, and volatility will increase. The US dollar remains weak, and commodities will be more influenced by their own supply - demand [29][30][31]. - In 2026, the possibility of the Fed expanding its balance sheet should be closely monitored. If it occurs, it is more of a technical operation for liquidity management, with a scale much smaller than previous QE, and its impact on assets is mainly "liquidity repair" [34][35].