需求不佳库存累积，煤价延续弱势：煤炭

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach to coal investments, focusing on high-quality core assets as primary targets due to uncertain demand dynamics and potential policy changes [5][6]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that the coal price is expected to stabilize, with the lowest point potentially being a policy bottom in 2025. The relationship between coal prices and the Producer Price Index (PPI) is highlighted, indicating that coal prices will remain crucial for PPI stability [5]. - The coal industry is seen as being in a transformative phase, with limited supply elasticity due to strict capacity controls and increasing extraction difficulties, particularly in eastern regions. This could lead to a more concentrated supply in western areas, raising costs [5]. - Despite macroeconomic weaknesses affecting coal demand, the rigid supply and rising costs are expected to support coal prices, which are likely to maintain a fluctuating upward trend [5]. Summary by Sections Coal Market Overview - As of December 5, 2025, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 785 RMB/ton, down 31 RMB/ton week-on-week, with a year-on-year decrease of 27 RMB/ton [3][27]. - Daily average production from 462 sample mines is 5.512 million tons, showing a slight increase of 1.2 thousand tons week-on-week but a year-on-year decline of 7.5% [3][32]. - The inventory index for thermal coal reached 201.4, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9.9 points [3][44]. Coking Coal - The price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,630 RMB/ton, down 40 RMB/ton week-on-week [4][59]. - Daily average production from 523 sample mines is 754 thousand tons, down 1 thousand tons week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 7% [4][69]. - Coking coal inventory at domestic steel mills is 798.1 million tons, showing a slight decrease of 3 thousand tons week-on-week but an increase of 56 thousand tons year-on-year [4][78]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [6]. - Companies with production growth potential that could benefit from a bottoming coal price cycle are also highlighted, including Yanzhou Coal Mining, Huayang Co., and Gansu Energy [6]. - Firms engaged in coal-electricity integration or those that can mitigate cyclical fluctuations are suggested as potential investment targets [6].