流动性跟踪：资金面或继续平稳

Liquidity Overview - In the first week of December (1-5), the liquidity remained stable with a net withdrawal of CNY 2.5 trillion, including CNY 1 trillion from reverse repos[1] - Overnight interest rate R001 decreased from 1.43% to 1.36% during the week, while the 7-day rate R007 remained stable at 1.49%[1] Market Outlook - For the week of December 8-12, liquidity is expected to remain stable, with R001 likely hovering around 1.36%[2] - The upcoming reverse repo maturity of CNY 663.8 billion is at a relatively low level compared to the median of CNY 1.0327 trillion for 2025[2] Government Bonds - The net payment for government bonds from December 8-12 is projected to be -CNY 452 billion, primarily due to CNY 2.235 trillion in bonds being deferred to the following week[5] - The issuance of a 3-month discount treasury bond is anticipated, with an estimated issuance size of CNY 600 billion, which may slightly increase the net payment to CNY 148 billion[2] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The weighted issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit rose to 1.64%, an increase of 1.2 basis points from the previous week[6] - The total maturity of certificates of deposit for December 8-12 is expected to be CNY 10.614 trillion, significantly higher than the previous week's CNY 4.858 trillion[6] Bill Market - As of December 5, the 1-month bill rate decreased by 39 basis points to 0.11%, while the 3-month and 6-month rates increased by 5 and 8 basis points to 0.42% and 0.81%, respectively[4] - Major banks turned to net buying of CNY 8.9 billion in bills during the period from December 1-4, reversing a net selling of CNY 52.7 billion in the previous week[4]