权益ETF系列：持续磨底，大级别反攻行情仍需要保持耐心

Market Overview - The A-share market from December 1 to December 5, 2025, showed varied performance with the top three broad indices being Shenzhen Dividend (+0.79%), ChiNext (+0.54%), and Shanghai 50 (+0.28%) while the bottom three were Wind Micro-Pan Index (-1.20%), Sci-Tech 50 (-0.80%), and Sci-Tech Composite Index (-0.75%) [13] - The performance of style indices ranked middle value (+1.65%), mid-growth (+1.49%), and cyclical (+0.93%) at the top, while consumer (-0.97%), small-cap growth (-0.75%), and growth (-0.59%) were at the bottom [15] - Among the Shenwan first-level industry indices, non-ferrous metals (+2.42%), non-bank financials (+2.24%), and machinery (+2.10%) led, while media (-4.67%), beauty care (-2.41%), and computers (-2.35%) lagged [18] Market Outlook - The macro timing model for December 2025 scored -2, indicating a historical probability of adjustment for the Wind All A Index, but any potential adjustment space is expected to be limited [24] - The market is anticipated to continue a bottoming phase with weak rebounds, particularly in the non-ferrous metals and communications sectors, but trading volume is decreasing, indicating weak buying and selling intentions [24] - Caution is advised for micro-pan directions as historical data shows weak performance in December, and recent high-level stocks have shown unusual movements [24] Fund Allocation Recommendations - A balanced and slightly aggressive ETF allocation is recommended based on the current market conditions [64] - The report suggests that the market may remain in a range-bound oscillation, necessitating patience for a larger-scale rebound [62] Risk Warnings - The model is based on historical data, which may become ineffective in the future [68] - There is a risk of macroeconomic performance falling short of expectations [68] - Unexpected macro events could significantly impact market conditions [68]