固收周报 20251206：转债建议关注科技主线扩散方向-20251206

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets are pricing in Fed rate cuts, with risk assets recovering. The US major stock indices are approaching their pre - November rate - cut - speculation levels, and industrial policies and catalysts are regaining pricing power. The potential December 19th rate hike by the BoJ is the next focus for overseas liquidity. A narrowing of the US - Japan policy interest rate spread may lead to a partial unwinding of carry - trade leveraged funds, impacting global liquidity [1][43] - The domestic equity market has shifted its focus to the policy guidance for the "14th Five - Year Plan" from the year - end important meetings. The technology sector shows signs of recovery, with Moore Threads surging over 4 times on its first trading day. Convertible bonds are generally volatile, with small - and medium - cap stocks outperforming. In 2026, the "diffusion" trend will be prominent. The continuous release of edge - side AI software and hardware will create a business loop for upstream high - capex spending and boost the edge - side, especially consumer electronics - related targets [1][44] - For existing convertible bond targets, it is recommended to focus on Chaosheng Convertible Bonds (SLP), Luxshare Convertible Bonds (ODM+), Guanyu Convertible Bonds (battery pack), and Lihe Convertible Bonds (PLC). For upcoming targets, pay attention to Awinic Electronics (thermal management chips), Tonglian Precision (MIM for Apple and Tesla's dexterous hands), Jingyan Technology (Android MIM + NVIDIA DCC), and Suzhou Tianmai (VC vapor chambers) [1][44] - The top ten convertible bonds with the highest probability of downward revision next week are Ziyin Convertible Bonds, Lanfan Convertible Bonds, Longda Convertible Bonds, Wanqing Convertible Bonds, Baolai Convertible Bonds, Jidong Convertible Bonds, Kehua Convertible Bonds, Honglu Convertible Bonds, Shanlu Convertible Bonds, and Qiaqia Convertible Bonds [1][44] - The top ten high - rated, medium - low - price convertible bonds with the greatest potential for par - premium ratio repair next week are Lizhong Convertible Bonds, Chutian Convertible Bonds, Jiangong Convertible Bonds, Ying 19 Convertible Bonds, Liqun Convertible Bonds, Hope Convertible Bonds, Liuyao Convertible Bonds, Jiayue Convertible Bonds, Wentai Convertible Bonds, and Lutai Convertible Bonds [1][45] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Weekly Market Review 1.1 Equity Market Overall Rise - From December 1st to 5th, the equity market rose overall. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% to 3902.81 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.26% to 13147.68 points, the ChiNext Index rose 1.86% to 3109.30 points, and the CSI 300 rose 1.28% to 4584.54 points. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased by about 41.146 billion yuan to 1684.284 billion yuan, with a weekly - on - weekly decline of 2.38% [6][9] - On different trading days, the market showed different trends. For example, on December 1st, most stocks rose, and sectors like consumer electronics and non - ferrous metals led the gains; on December 2nd, most stocks fell, and sectors like energy metals and non - ferrous metals declined [10] - Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 17 industries rose, with 5 industries rising over 2%. Non - ferrous metals, communication, national defense and military industry, machinery equipment, and non - bank finance led the gains, while media, beauty care, food and beverage, computer, and textile and apparel led the losses [14] 1.2 Convertible Bond Market Overall Rise - From December 1st to 5th, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.08% to 482.00 points. Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, 20 industries rose, with 2 industries rising over 2%. National defense and military industry, non - ferrous metals, machinery equipment, petroleum and petrochemical, and commercial retail led the gains, while computer, power equipment, beauty care, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and food and beverage led the losses [17] - The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 53.801 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 7.77 billion yuan, with a month - on - month change of - 12.62%. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of trading volume were Furong Convertible Bonds, Dongshi Convertible Bonds, Dazhong Convertible Bonds, Zhongneng Convertible Bonds, Weidao Convertible Bonds, Guanzhong Convertible Bonds, Huicheng Convertible Bonds, Zhenhua Convertible Bonds, Nenghui Convertible Bonds, and Zhongqi Convertible Bonds [17] - Approximately 51.24% of convertible bond issues rose, with about 29.60% rising between 0 - 1% and 11.44% rising over 2% [17] - The overall market conversion premium rate declined, with a daily average of 40.85%, a decrease of 0.70 pct from last week. Different price and parity intervals showed different trends, and 8 industries saw an expansion in the conversion premium rate, while some industries saw a narrowing [23][32] - In terms of conversion parity, 22 industries saw an increase, with 11 industries rising over 2%. Textile and apparel, non - ferrous metals, communication, petroleum and petrochemical, and automobile led the gains, while environmental protection, media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, computer, and social services led the losses [36] 1.3 Comparison of Stock and Bond Market Sentiments - From December 1st to 5th, the weighted average and median price changes of convertible bonds and underlying stocks were positive, and the underlying stocks had a larger weekly increase. The trading volume of the convertible bond market decreased by 12.62% month - on - month, at the 37.70% quantile level since 2022; the corresponding underlying stock market trading volume decreased by 5.86% month - on - month, at the 63.70% quantile level since 2022. The underlying stock market had a better trading sentiment overall [40] - On different trading days, the trading sentiment of the stock and bond markets varied. For example, on December 1st, the underlying stock market had a better trading sentiment; on December 3rd, the convertible bond market had a better trading sentiment [41] 2. Outlook and Investment Strategy - Overseas markets are pricing in Fed rate cuts, and the potential BoJ rate hike is a focus. A narrowing of the US - Japan policy interest rate spread may impact global liquidity [1][43] - The domestic equity market is focused on policy guidance, and the technology sector shows recovery signs. Convertible bonds are volatile, and in 2026, the "diffusion" trend will be important. Recommendations for convertible bond targets are provided, and the top ten convertible bonds with high downward - revision probability and par - premium ratio repair potential are listed [1][44]