Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-12-06 15:19Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for quality companies in the food and beverage sector, particularly in the liquor segment [4][9]. Core Insights - The report indicates that major liquor companies have experienced significant revenue declines year-on-year, with high-end liquor prices continuing to drop as the market seeks a balance between volume and price. It anticipates a double-digit decline in sales for Q1 2026, with a potential stabilization in Q2 and a fundamental turnaround in Q3 2026 as inventory clears and demand recovers [4][9]. - The report highlights that if the fundamentals improve as expected, the end of 2026 to 2027 could see a dual boost in valuation and performance for quality companies, marking a strategic allocation period for long-term investors [4][9]. - The report emphasizes a systemic opportunity in mass consumer goods, with a focus on CPI as a core observation indicator. It predicts a gradual improvement in food CPI throughout the year, driven by structural demand improvements and a shift in competitive strategies from price to quality [4][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Perspective on Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 1.90% last week, with liquor down 2.59%, underperforming the market by 2.27 percentage points. The top gainers included companies like Anji Food and Haixin Food, while the biggest losers were ST Yanshan and Yantang Dairy [8]. 2. Market Performance by Sector - The report notes that the average price of Moutai has dropped to 1545 RMB per bottle, a decrease of 25 RMB week-on-week, while the price for Wuliangye remains stable at approximately 825 RMB. The decline in Moutai prices is attributed to increased shipments by distributors to meet annual targets amid weak seasonal demand [10][12]. 3. Industry Matters - The report suggests focusing on the restaurant supply chain, particularly in condiments and frozen foods, with recommendations for companies like Anji Food and Qianhe Flavoring. It anticipates continued improvement in operational performance for these companies as the restaurant sector recovers [11][12]. 4. Valuation Table - As of December 5, 2025, the food and beverage sector has a dynamic PE of 20.19x, with a premium rate of 24%, while the liquor segment has a dynamic PE of 18.87x, with a premium rate of 16% [32].