宏观经济周报：解锁服务业增长的三把钥匙-20251206

Group 1: Economic Insights - China's service industry faces a classic "demand and income" cycle dilemma, where boosting service demand is believed to depend on increased resident income, creating a paradox[1] - Three key demand drivers are identified that do not rely on current resident income growth: overseas "input demand," domestic "time-scarcity" suppressed demand, and "innovation demand" from industrial upgrades[1] - The service export growth driven by international exchanges has significantly contributed to domestic employment and output since Q3 2023[10] Group 2: Employment and Consumption - The "three drivers" can create jobs, particularly for youth and those transitioning between jobs, enhancing income expectations and consumer confidence[2] - This process is expected to activate broader service consumption, forming a virtuous cycle of "employment—income—consumption" that supports current growth stabilization[2] - Consumer indicators show signs of weakness, with logistics delivery growth slowing to 2.6% year-on-year, reflecting weakened demand[22] Group 3: Key Economic Data - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 1.70% year-on-year, while retail sales have increased by 2.90% year-on-year[3] - Exports have declined by 1.10% year-on-year, and M2 growth stands at 8.21%[3] - Port cargo throughput reached a record high of 286 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 8.43%, indicating strong external demand[25]