申万宏源策略《关于调整保险公司相关业务风险因子的通知》点评：鼓励长期资金入市的方向延续

Core Insights - The report discusses the adjustment of risk factors for insurance companies' investments, specifically the reduction of risk factors for stocks held for over three years in the CSI 300 and the low-volatility 100 index from 0.3 to 0.27, and for stocks in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board held for over two years from 0.4 to 0.36 [4][17][21] - The adjustment is seen as a marginal impact, with the potential for a significant increase in equity allocation by insurance funds in the long term [21][26] Quantitative Assessment of Risk Factor Adjustment Impact - The report presents three scenarios for the proportion of stocks held for over three years in the CSI 300 and low-volatility 100: current situation at 13.0%, mid-term neutral at 42.1%, and mid-term optimistic at 50.3% [9][19] - For stocks held for over two years in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, the current situation is at 0.6%, mid-term neutral at 1.9%, and mid-term optimistic at 2.9% [9][19] - The minimum capital released due to the risk factor adjustment is estimated at 141 billion, 457 billion, and 554 billion under the three scenarios, respectively, with potential increases in stock investment of 514 billion, 1669 billion, and 2015 billion [17][19][21] Insurance Fund Allocation Trends - As of Q3 2025, insurance companies' investment in stocks and funds exceeded 15%, nearing a new high since 2015, but still below the regulatory cap of 30% [21][22] - If the allocation to stocks and funds were to increase to the 30% cap, an additional 32,431 billion could be invested in stocks [25][21] - The report emphasizes that the increase in equity allocation by insurance companies is a gradual process, with significant potential for future growth [21][26] Policy Implications - The adjustment of risk factors is viewed as a supportive policy for encouraging long-term capital market participation, particularly for state-owned insurance companies that have already increased their equity allocation [21][26] - The report suggests that the adjustment will provide additional incentives for other insurance companies to increase their equity investments [21][26] - The overall impact of the risk factor adjustment is considered marginal compared to the potential for long-term increases in equity allocation by insurance funds [21][26]