中短债企稳，超长债尚需观察

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, treasury bond futures showed divergent trends, with ultra - long bonds experiencing a significant decline. Next week, mid - short - term bonds are likely to stabilize, while the stabilization of ultra - long bonds remains to be observed [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From December 1st to 7th, treasury bond futures showed divergent trends, with TL dropping significantly. By December 5th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.412, 105.755, 107.890, and 112.570 yuan respectively, changing by +0.034, +0.020, - 0.025, and - 1.890 yuan compared to last weekend [2][12] 3.1.2 Next Week's Viewpoint - Mid - short - term bonds are likely to stabilize as the Politburo meeting's policy tone is expected to be positive but not exceed market expectations, and the capital situation is balanced. However, the trading structure of ultra - long bonds is fragile, and whether they can stabilize remains uncertain [3][14] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 78 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 430.717 billion yuan and a net financing of - 79.767 billion yuan. The total issuance and net financing of local government bonds were 108.717 billion yuan and 60.493 billion yuan respectively. The issuance and net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit were 495.910 billion yuan and 47.100 billion yuan respectively [21] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - As of December 5th, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.41%, 1.63%, 1.85%, and 2.27% respectively, with changes of - 1.10, + 1.41, + 0.53, and + 8.20 bp compared to last weekend. The 10Y - 1Y and 30Y - 10Y spreads widened, while the 10Y - 5Y spread narrowed [24] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - As of December 5th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures changed by +0.034, +0.020, - 0.025, and - 1.890 yuan compared to last weekend. The trading volumes this week were 32,320, 73,177, 101,358, and 150,455 lots respectively, with changes of - 10,101, - 20,366, - 31,250, and + 8,160 lots compared to last week. The open interests were 67,038, 143,326, 238,115, and 169,766 lots respectively, with changes of - 2,505, - 11,924, - 22,264, and - 5,537 lots compared to last week [33][36] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - This week, short - term varieties were relatively stable, while ultra - long bonds dropped significantly. The basis fluctuated and widened. Currently, the IRR of each variety has generally declined, and the positive arbitrage opportunity is not obvious [40] 3.3.3 Inter - period and Inter - variety Spreads - As of December 5th, the inter - period spreads of the 2512 - 2603 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were +0.024, - 0.035, +0.195, and +0.160 yuan respectively, changing by - 0.012, + 0.015, - 0.020, and - 0.070 yuan compared to last weekend [45] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Capital Situation - This week, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase operation resulted in a net withdrawal of 848 billion yuan. As of December 5th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.50%, 1.44%, 1.30%, and 1.42% respectively, with changes of - 2.59, - 2.88, + 0.00, and - 2.10 bp compared to last weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 7.93 trillion yuan, 0.84 trillion yuan more than last week [48][51][53] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index weakened, and the yield of 10Y US treasury bonds increased. As of December 5th, the US dollar index fell 0.46% to 98.9830 compared to last weekend, the yield of 10Y US treasury bonds was 4.14%, up 12 bp from last weekend, and the spread between Chinese and US 10Y treasury bonds was inverted by 229.1 bp [57] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices generally rose. As of December 5th, the Southern China Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3511.97, 6612.13, and 1537.11 points respectively, with changes of + 12.72, + 112.05, and - 16.74 points compared to last weekend. Agricultural product prices also generally rose, with the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits being 17.68, 5.93, and 7.41 yuan/kg respectively, changing by - 0.15, + 0.14, and + 0.19 yuan/kg compared to last weekend [63] 3.7 Investment Suggestions - The downside risk of mid - short - term varieties is basically eliminated. However, whether ultra - long bonds can stabilize remains to be observed. If the price is considered relatively reasonable, short - sellers can moderately realize floating profits, and long - buyers should be cautious [64]