——申万宏源策略《关于调整保险公司相关业务风险因子的通知》点评：鼓励长期资金入市的方向延续

Core Insights - The report discusses the adjustment of risk factors for insurance companies' investments, specifically the reduction of risk factors for stocks held for over three years in the CSI 300 and the low-volatility dividend index from 0.3 to 0.27, and for stocks held for over two years in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board from 0.4 to 0.36 [3][4][17] - The adjustment is seen as a marginal impact, with the potential for a significant increase in equity allocation by insurance funds in the long term [17][21] Quantitative Assessment of Risk Factor Adjustment - The report provides three scenarios for the proportion of stocks held for over three years in the CSI 300 and low-volatility dividend index: current situation at 13.0%, mid-term neutral at 42.1%, and optimistic at 50.3% [7][15] - For stocks held for over two years in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, the current situation is at 0.6%, mid-term neutral at 1.9%, and optimistic at 2.9% [7][15] - The minimum capital released from the risk factor adjustment is estimated at 141 billion, 457 billion, and 554 billion under the three scenarios, respectively, with potential increases in stock investment of 514 billion, 1669 billion, and 2015 billion [15][17] Encouragement of Long-term Capital Market Entry - The adjustment is viewed as a supportive policy for encouraging long-term capital entry into the market, particularly for state-owned insurance companies that have already increased their equity investment ratios [17][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of increasing the equity allocation ratio of insurance funds as the main source of potential market entry space, estimating a potential increase of 32,431 billion if the equity and fund investment ratio reaches the regulatory cap of 30% [17][20] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The report notes that the spring market's economic and industrial catalysts are yet to be clarified, with supply-demand logic becoming a primary concern [21] - The adjustment of risk factors may lead to a favorable environment for insurance companies to engage in high-dividend stock investments while maintaining a focus on cost-effectiveness [21]