螺纹钢周报：主力移仓远月，盘面低位震荡-20251207

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed is likely to continue its loose monetary policy, with the market - expected probability of a December rate cut rising above 85%. External pressure has significantly eased, and the outlook for Sino - US tariffs is relatively optimistic. China's export performance is better than expected [75]. - In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved business conditions. The National Development and Reform Commission is working on formulating cost - determination standards for disorderly price competition. The Central Economic Work Conference in December is approaching, and its macro - policies should be watched [75]. - As the off - season arrives, downstream demand for steel is gradually weakening, and some steel mills are starting to cut production. The supply of five major steel products decreased by 3.1% week - on - week, with a significant decline in rebar production [75]. - There is still seasonal downward pressure on steel demand as the off - season deepens. The weekly apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 2.7%, with construction materials consumption down 5.8% and plate consumption down 0.9% [76]. - The inventory of five major steel products continued to decline week - on - week, mainly due to the significant drop in steel production. The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand with declining inventory [76]. - The price rebound of raw materials is limited due to the reduced demand from steel mill production cuts. The main rebar contract has shifted to the far - month contract, and the market is oscillating at a low level. Short - term operations are recommended [77]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Part 1: Review of Rebar Futures Market - 1.1 Recent Important Information Overview - Economic data: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The production index was 50.0%, up 0.3 percentage points; the new order index was 49.2%, up 0.4 percentage points; the raw material inventory index was 47.3%, unchanged; the employment index was 48.4%, up 0.1 percentage points; and the supplier delivery time index was 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 87.6%, and the probability of maintaining the current rate is 12.4% [12]. - Policy information: The National Development and Reform Commission is working on formulating cost - determination standards for disorderly price competition. The Central Economic Work Conference in December is approaching [12]. 3.2 Part 2: Futures Market Environment: Macroeconomy, Price Ratios, and Basis - 2.1 Macro - Monetary Quantity: Not detailed in the provided content - 2.2 Macro - Monetary Price: The SHIBOR on December 4, 2025, was 1.5200, compared to 1.5460 on November 3, 2025. The monthly rate decreased, indicating a bullish outlook [22]. - 2.3 Price Ratio - Domestic and Overseas: Not detailed in the provided content - 2.4 Price Ratio - Other Commodities in the Industry Chain - The prices and their changes of rebar, hot - rolled coils, PB powder, metallurgical coke, and main coking coal are presented. For example, the price of rebar (HRB400 20mm in Shanghai) was 3,300 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.85%, a monthly increase of 3.45%, and an annual decrease of 4.62% [28]. - 2.5 Rebar Main Contract Basis: Not detailed in the provided content 3.3 Part 3: Overview of Rebar Spot Supply and Demand - 3.2 - 3.5: Information about blast - furnace profits (for various steel products and in the futures - spot market) not detailed in the provided content - 3.6 - 3.7: Information about electric - furnace profits, electric - furnace start - up, and daily average hot - metal production not detailed in the provided content - 3.8 Steel Weekly Output: On December 5, 2025, the steel output (including rebar, hot - rolled coils, wire rods, and medium - thick plates) was 743.43 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.042835071 and a week - on - week decrease of 0.035696219 [45]. - 3.9 Rebar Weekly Output: On December 5, 2025, the rebar output was 189.31 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.081376165 and a year - on - year decrease of 0.149092053 [48]. - 3.10 - 3.11: Information about steel mill inventory and social inventory of steel not fully analyzed in the provided content - 3.13 Rebar Social Inventory: The rebar social inventory and its week - on - week changes are presented. For example, on December 5, 2025, the inventory was 430.81 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.68 million tons [64]. - 3.14 Building Materials Transactions: Not detailed in the provided content - 3.15 Rebar Mill Inventory: The rebar mill inventory and its week - on - week changes are presented. For example, the inventory was 142.68 million tons with a week - on - week decrease of 4.05 million tons [61]. - 3.15 Rebar Total Inventory: On December 5, 2025, the rebar total inventory was 503.81 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 27.67 million tons [67]. - 3.15 Rebar Apparent Consumption: On December 5, 2025, the rebar apparent consumption was 216.98 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10.96 million tons [70]. 3.4 Part 4: Market Outlook - The external environment is relatively favorable with the Fed's likely rate cut and positive Sino - US tariff prospects. The domestic manufacturing PMI has improved, and policy support is expected from the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference. However, in the off - season, steel demand is weakening, production is being cut, and the market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand with declining inventory. The raw material price rebound is limited, and the rebar market is oscillating at a low level. Short - term operations are recommended [75][76][77].