国信期货甲醇周报：高位库存压制，甲醇反弹乏力-20251207

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - High inventory levels are suppressing the methanol market, leading to weak rebound potential. In the short - term, the supply - demand fundamentals remain weak, and the methanol market is likely to maintain a stable and volatile trend [1][47] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Part 1: Market Review - 1.1 Methanol Futures and Spot Prices and Spread Trends - The main methanol futures contract MA2601 closed at 2,077 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 2.3%, a reduction of 177,000 lots in positions, and a holding of 870,000 lots. The port basis strengthened slightly [6] - 1.2 Methanol Spot Prices in Different Regions and Price Spreads between Production and Sales Areas - The coastal methanol market continued to rise this week, and the inland market also increased overall. The weekly average price in the Taicang area was 2,112 yuan/ton, a 2.52% increase. The weekly average price in Inner Mongolia was 2,001 yuan/ton, a 1.06% rise. Coastal inventories decreased slightly from previous highs, with obvious reluctance to sell at low prices. Downstream procurement enthusiasm rebounded, and overall market demand improved. The narrowing of the reverse - flow arbitrage window also supported inland prices [9] - 1.3 Methanol Foreign Market Prices and Domestic - Foreign Spreads - For foreign markets, non - Iranian methanol cargoes arriving in the far - month are priced at 237 - 251 US dollars/ton, and Iranian methanol cargoes have certain price trends. As more Iranian methanol plants enter maintenance, the negotiation and transaction prices of imported cargoes are rising. The European and American markets are weakly sorted, with European methanol at 250 - 260 euros/ton and American methanol at 88 - 89 cents/gallon [12] 3.2 Part 2: Methanol Fundamental Analysis - 2.1 Methanol Operating Rate - As of December 4, the overall domestic methanol plant operating rate was 76.19%, a 0.45 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 2.18 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The operating rate in the northwest region was 86.48%, a 0.55 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 1.44 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. Some natural gas plants entered maintenance, and attention should be paid to the domestic gas - based production load reduction [17] - 2.2 Methanol Import and Export Volumes - The import arbitrage window is closed, and the re - export arbitrage window remains open [20] - 2.3 Methanol Port Inventories - This week, coastal methanol inventories were 1.4343 million tons, a decrease of 79,700 tons (5.26%) from the previous week. The estimated available methanol in the coastal area is 770,000 tons. Due to port congestion and weather, the unloading of most imported cargoes was delayed. It is expected that 1.09 million tons of imported methanol will arrive in mid - December [23] - 2.4 Crude Oil and Natural Gas - The domestic thermal coal market is inactive, coal prices are adjusting downward, and the profit of coal - to - methanol production has improved. Attention should be paid to the willingness of coal - based plants to start operations [31] - 2.6 Methanol Downstream Prices and Operating Rates - The overall weighted operating rate of methanol downstream industries is 78.87%, a 0.8% increase from the previous week. The weighted operating rate of traditional downstream industries is 54.78%, a 0.11% increase from the previous week [32] - 2.7 Methanol Downstream - Traditional Downstream - Not provided with specific summarized content in the given text - 2.8 Methanol Downstream - MTO - The average operating rate of methanol - to - olefin plants this week was 87.30%, a 0.83 - percentage - point increase from last week. The average load of MTO plants using externally - purchased methanol was 83.96%, a 1.65 - percentage - point increase from last week. Yangmei Hengtong restarted, and Ningbo Fude plans to stop production for 40 - 50 days starting on December 8 [44] 3.3 Part 3: Future Outlook - Currently, nearly 70% of Iranian plants have or are about to enter maintenance, and import volumes are expected to decrease, with far - month prices at a premium. However, short - term coastal inventories are still high, and the forecasted arrivals in mid - December remain high. Effective inventory reduction is expected around the middle and late of the month. Coastal MTO plants are about to enter maintenance, so the short - term supply - demand fundamentals are still weak, and the methanol market may maintain a stable and volatile trend [47]