宏观周报：美联储12月降息预期升温-20251207

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - Domestic consumption shows improvement with a year-on-year decline in passenger car retail sales narrowing to 1.2%[3] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reached a new high for December 2023, increasing by 23.2%[3] - Movie box office revenue surged due to the release of a popular animated film, contributing to a 5.4% increase in overall entertainment spending[3] Domestic Macro - Supply Side - Seasonal production continues to decline, with a decrease of 2.92 percentage points in production intensity[3] - Real estate and infrastructure sectors remain weak, with production intensity at 32.55%[3] - The chemical industry shows varied performance, with PTA production at 73.81%[3] Price Performance - Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows a decline in pork prices while fruit and vegetable prices continue to rise, with CPI growth at 1.06%[3] - Producer Price Index (PPI) reflects rising prices in crude oil and non-ferrous metals, with WTI crude oil prices up by 2.61%[2] Monetary Policy Outlook - Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December are increasing, influenced by U.S. employment and inflation data[3] - Hassett is likely to succeed the current Fed chair, with a clear bias towards easing monetary policy[4]