南华期货碳酸锂产业周报：复产扰动+Q1淡季预期，注意回调风险-20251207

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of the resumption of production at Ningde and the expected Q1 off - season, the supply - demand marginal game in the lithium carbonate market will intensify, and the price fluctuation range is expected to expand. However, in the long - term, the long - term value supported by the industry fundamentals remains unchanged, and there are opportunities to go long on dips. It is recommended that investors focus on the structural long - making opportunities after the correction and make batch layouts based on the reasonable valuation range [1][2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The driving logic of lithium carbonate futures prices in the next month will focus on factors such as the tightness of domestic lithium ore inventory, the resumption progress of Jiaxiaowo, the downstream restocking rhythm, and Q1 downstream production scheduling. The supply of lithium ore is affected by the "resumption progress of Jiaxiaowo", and the demand side is strong with continuous inventory depletion. The downstream restocking rhythm and technical factors also affect the price [1] 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Near - term trading logic (before the end of the year): lithium ore inventory tightness, Jiaxiaowo lithium ore resumption progress, and downstream restocking rhythm. Distant - term trading logic (after the end of the year): not elaborated in detail [5][6] 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Strategy Recommendations - For procurement management, different strategies are recommended according to whether the product price is correlated. For sales management, strategies are provided to prevent price decline risks. For inventory management, short - selling futures contracts is recommended to lock in the value of inventory [5] 3.2 Market Information 3.2.1 This Week's Main Information - It includes the resumption progress of Ningde Jiaxiaowo lithium ore, downstream Q1 production scheduling, and a series of industry news such as corporate cooperation agreements and project financing [8][10] 3.2.2 Next Week's Main Information - None 3.3 Futures and Price Data 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - This week, lithium carbonate futures prices showed a weakening trend. The MACD and moving averages, and the Bollinger Bands indicated potential further decline risks. The first support level is 90,000 yuan/ton, and the second is 88,000 yuan/ton. The 20 - day historical volatility of futures decreased, the implied volatility of at - the - money options weakened, and the PCR of option positions declined. The long - position scale increased this week [14][15][17] 3.3.2 Month - Spread Structure - The current term structure of lithium carbonate futures shows a contango structure. Near - term contracts are affected by the resumption of production news and the Q1 off - season, while long - term contracts are supported by factors such as the development of the domestic energy storage industry and the growth of new energy vehicle demand [22] 3.3.3 CME and LME Lithium Hydroxide Futures - CME lithium hydroxide futures prices showed different changes in different months, and information on LME lithium hydroxide futures was briefly mentioned without detailed data analysis [28][29][32] 3.3.4 Basis Structure - This week, the basis of the lithium carbonate main contract fluctuated widely, and the current basis level is within a reasonable range [34] 3.3.5 Spot Price Data - The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium salts, and battery materials showed different changes this week, including price increases and decreases [36] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Profit Tracking of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industrial Chain - The demand for lithium - ion batteries has driven the improvement of the profitability of the entire lithium - battery industry chain. The profit of the lithium carbonate production line of upstream lithium salt plants is rising, while the profit of the lithium hydroxide production line is weakening. The profit of cathode materials and lithium - ion battery electrolyte also shows different trends [38] 3.4.2 Import and Export Profits - This week, the import profit of lithium carbonate showed a marginal upward trend, while the export profit of lithium hydroxide showed a marginal weakening trend [43] 3.5 Fundamental Situation 3.5.1 Lithium Ore Supply - Domestic lithium ore production, overseas imports, and inventory data are provided. The total available inventory of domestic lithium ore decreased this week, and the port inventory also decreased [46][49][50] 3.5.2 Upstream Lithium Salt Supply - For lithium carbonate supply, the overall start - up rate of sample enterprises decreased slightly, and the total output increased slightly. The start - up rates and outputs of different production lines showed different changes. The net export and inventory of lithium carbonate also changed. For lithium hydroxide supply, monthly production and start - up rate data are provided [56][70][80] 3.5.3 Mid - Stream Material Factory Supply - The output and start - up rates of battery material factories such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium showed different trends this week. The inventory of material factories also has corresponding changes [86][99][101] 3.5.4 Downstream Cell Supply - The weekly output of power cells in China increased slightly, and the monthly output of power, energy storage, and consumer - type cells shows seasonal characteristics. The lithium - battery installation volume also has corresponding data [107][109][110] 3.5.5 New Energy Vehicles - The production and sales of new energy vehicles, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles, showed different trends. The inventory of the automotive industry also has corresponding data [113][120][123] 3.5.6 Energy Storage - The total winning bid power scale and winning bid capacity scale of energy storage show corresponding trends [126]