Bank of China Securities·2025-12-07 06:44Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electric equipment and new energy industry [1]. Core Insights - The sales of new energy vehicles are expected to continue growing, with a projected 20% year-on-year increase in domestic sales by 2025, driving demand for batteries and materials [1]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is promoting a "de-involution" strategy in the battery industry, which is anticipated to restore profitability across the supply chain [1]. - Solid-state battery industrialization is progressing, with a focus on related materials and equipment companies [1]. - In the photovoltaic sector, the "de-involution" strategy is seen as a key investment theme, although terminal demand is currently weak, leading to price fluctuations in the supply chain [1]. - The wind power sector is expected to see sustained growth, with government support for new projects [1]. - The energy storage market remains robust, with rising prices in upstream materials affecting downstream integration [1]. - Hydrogen energy is anticipated to open up demand for green hydrogen, with a focus on downstream applications [1]. - Nuclear fusion is viewed as a long-term energy development direction, with recommendations to focus on core suppliers in this area [1]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - The fourth quarter is a peak sales season, with a forecast of 1.72 million new energy vehicles sold in November 2025, a 20% year-on-year increase [2]. - Cumulative wholesale figures for the year show a 29% increase, totaling 13.78 million vehicles [2]. Battery Industry - The planned production for December 2025 is 148.84 GWh, reflecting a 2.27% month-on-month increase [2]. Photovoltaic and Wind Power - The utilization rates for wind and photovoltaic power are projected at 96.4% and 94.8% respectively for October 2025 [2]. - The announcement of new brands for polysilicon futures is expected to have limited impact on the supply landscape [1]. Energy Storage - By November 2025, 10 GW/29.7 GWh of energy storage systems have been tendered, with independent storage projects making up 90% of this [2]. - The demand for energy storage remains high, with upstream material price increases pushing up costs in downstream integration [1]. Hydrogen Energy - The National Energy Administration has announced pilot projects for hydrogen energy, indicating a growing focus on this sector [2]. Market Trends - The electric equipment and new energy sector saw a slight increase of 0.22% this week, with wind power leading the gains at 3.48% [10]. - The lithium battery index experienced a decline of 3.53%, indicating market volatility [13]. Price Observations - The price of lithium carbonate remains high, with battery-grade prices around 91,000 RMB per ton, reflecting a 2.6% increase [25]. - Energy storage cell prices are stable, with square lithium iron phosphate cells priced between 0.270-0.420 RMB per watt-hour [26].