国泰君安期货原油周度报告-20251207

Report Overview - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures·Crude Oil Weekly Report [1] - Date: December 7, 2025 [2] - Analysts: Huang Liunan, Zhao Xuyi [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Short - term: Observe the impact of geopolitical factors on oil transportation, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines. - Medium - term: Be cautious about further significant price drops. Brent and WTI may test the lows before April at the end of this year or early next year, and may even reach $50 per barrel. The decline of SC may be less than that of foreign benchmarks. - Long - term: Although the decline in oil prices has accelerated under the influence of trade frictions, a long - term decline is unlikely to happen overnight. Pay attention to potential reversals in macro - expectations, which may amplify oil price fluctuations. [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - The gold - oil ratio has strengthened again. - Attention should be paid to inflation transmission. - The RMB exchange rate has strengthened again, and social financing has declined. [23][26][28] 3.2 Supply - OPEC+ decided at the November 30 meeting to suspend further production increases in Q1 2026, maintaining the existing output path. - OPEC 8's production increase completion rate in October remained at 80%. OPEC 8's exports in September reached a high and then declined by 480,000 barrels per day in October. - Non - OPEC countries' supply is growing strongly. For example, the production of Guyana and Brazil has remained at a high level, and the production of the United States reached a record high in September. [30][31][32] 3.3 Demand - The refinery operating rates in the United States and Europe have declined, and the operating rate of major Chinese refineries has dropped significantly. The "Rizhao Port Incident" may continue to have an impact. - Global refinery capacity is changing. Some refineries are expanding or newly built, while others are shutting down or reducing capacity. [68][71] 3.4 Inventory - US commercial inventories have stabilized, and the inventory in Cushing is still significantly lower than the historical average. - European diesel inventories have declined, while gasoline inventories have increased. - Global in - transit crude oil inventories and floating storage are at high levels. - Domestic refined oil profit margins have rebounded. [73][78][80] 3.5 Price and Spread - Spot market overview: Geopolitical factors have disrupted the market, and the purchases of Russian oil by India and Turkey have declined. Saudi Aramco has lowered the OSP for Asia in January to the lowest level in five years. - North American basis has rebounded, and the monthly spread has rebounded slightly. The valuation of SC is at a medium - low level, and the monthly spread has stabilized. [90][96][97]