锌产业链周度报告-20251207

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc prices have limited upward momentum after breaking through 23,000, and attention should be paid to supply - side disturbances. The strength analysis is neutral to strong, and domestic inventories continue to decline [3]. - Domestic supply is decreasing. Imported zinc concentrate losses are large, and domestic concentrate TC is expected to decline further. Some smelters plan to reduce production, with a potential supply reduction of 3 - 4 tons. Consumption is in the off - season, and downstream demand is weak. The export window is open, but short - term export volume is not expected to be large. There is an expectation of zinc ingot surplus next year, but short - term negative factors are restricted. Supply - side disturbances support prices, and downstream consumption and restocking rhythm limit price increases [6]. - In terms of strategy, domestic destocking and overseas stockpiling make domestic - overseas reverse arbitrage have a certain risk - return ratio, but the driving logic within the year is not strong. The LME 0 - 3 spread remains high, and phased intervention can be considered [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Price Changes: The closing price of SHFE zinc last week was 23,305, with a weekly increase of 3.92%. The closing price of the night session was 23,065, with a decline of 1.03%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc3 last week was 3,098.5, with a weekly increase of 1.56% [7]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes: The trading volume of SHFE zinc last Friday was 163,149, an increase of 68,993 from the previous week. The open interest was 107,552, an increase of 6,010. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc3 was 13,271, an increase of 4,210, and the open interest was 222,390, an increase of 2,659 [7]. - Inventory Changes: SHFE zinc warehouse receipts decreased by 6,888 to 60,729, and total SHFE zinc inventory decreased by 4,000 to 91,916. Social inventory decreased by 7,800 to 140,300. LME zinc inventory increased by 3,625 to 55,375, and the bonded - area inventory remained unchanged at 3,600 [7]. - Fundamental Data Changes: Imported zinc concentrate processing fees decreased from 61 to 58 dollars/ton, and domestic zinc concentrate processing fees decreased from 2,350 to 2,050 yuan/ton. Imported zinc concentrate smelting profit decreased by 603 yuan/ton to - 4,764 yuan/ton, and domestic zinc concentrate smelting profit decreased by 192 yuan/ton to - 1,266 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - Inventory: Zinc ore, smelter finished product inventories are falling from high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventories are decreasing [10]. - Profit: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, while smelting profits are at historical lows. Mine enterprise profits are rising and at a medium - high level in history, smelting profits are falling, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable at a medium - low level in the same period [12][13]. - Operating Rate: Zinc concentrate operating rate is rising and at a medium level in the same period in history. Refined zinc operating rate is falling and at a medium level in the same period in history. Downstream galvanizing operating rate is rising, while die - casting zinc and zinc oxide operating rates are falling, all at medium - low levels in history [14][15]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - Spot: Guangdong and Tianjin spot premiums are weakening. Overseas premiums are showing differentiation this week, with Singapore's premium stable and LME CASH - 3M falling from a high level [18][19]. - Spread: The SHFE zinc C - structure is flattening [22]. - Inventory: Domestic inventories are slightly decreasing this week, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. LME inventories are mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a significant increase in total inventory. The cancellation warrant ratio has dropped significantly to a historical low [24][30]. - Open Interest and Trading Volume: Domestic open interest is at a medium level in the same period in history [34]. 3.4 Supply - Zinc Concentrate: Zinc concentrate imports have dropped significantly, domestic zinc ore production is rising, imported ore processing fees have decreased this week, and domestic concentrate processing fees have decreased significantly. Ore arrivals are at a low level, and smelter raw material inventories are decreasing [37][38]. - Refined Zinc: Smelting output is falling but remains at a high level in the same period in history. Smelter finished product inventories are decreasing and at a high level in the same period in history, and zinc alloy production is at a high level [44][45]. - Import and Export: The refined zinc import loss is large, and the export window is open, but short - term export volume is not expected to be large [6][46]. 3.5 Zinc Demand - Refined Zinc Consumption: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [51]. - Downstream Operating Rate: The monthly downstream operating rate has slightly declined and is mostly at a medium - low level in the same period in history [54]. - Terminal Demand: The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural growth [70]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - European natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices show certain fluctuations, which affect the profitability of overseas zinc smelters [72][73][75].