能源化工C3产业链周度报告-20251207

1. Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints LPG Part - Short - term demand is strong, but long - term demand is under pressure. Combustion demand is supported by the arrival of the peak season, and chemical demand remains high despite deep losses in PDH. However, the supply situation in the Middle East is expected to ease, and North American supply may increase, putting downward pressure on the medium - term trend [3][4]. Propylene Part - There is an expectation of increased supply, and the upward driving force is limited. Next week, the supply will increase as restarted devices gradually increase their loads, while demand is weak, and the tight supply - demand situation in Shandong is expected to ease [7]. 3. Summary by Directory LPG Part Price & Spread - Domestic LPG spot prices and basis: Civil gas prices in various regions have changed to varying degrees, with the basis widening. The prices of other LPG types and their basis have also shown different trends [10]. - Regional quotes, discounts, and freight: Asian demand is stable, and the arbitrage space from the US Gulf to the Far East has narrowed [22]. - Propane prices: The prices of AFEI, Propane CP M1, and Propane MB have all fluctuated to some extent [32][33][34]. Supply - US propane shipments have increased month - on - month, and Asian buying interest is high. Canadian propane shipments have also changed. Middle East LPG shipments are in short supply, and shipments are delayed. The total LPG commodity volume is 51.7 million tons (- 0.9%), and the propane commodity volume has decreased by 55,000 tons in terms of import arrivals [40][48][49][70][79]. Demand & Inventory - Chemical demand: PDH operating rate has increased slightly, and MTBE operating rate has remained flat. Domestic LPG refinery inventory is lower than the same period last year, civil gas refinery inventory has decreased, and LPG terminal import cargo inventory has decreased overall [84][86]. Propylene Part Price & Spread - Propylene industrial chain prices: Propane costs are in a consolidation range, propylene prices are relatively strong driven by demand, and PDH profits are relatively stable month - on - month. PP powder and pellet trends are in a narrow range, PO prices are strong, and butanol and octanol profits have improved significantly [117][119]. - Propylene prices: International/US dollar prices have increased slightly, and domestic prices are in a consolidation range driven by demand [121][129]. Balance Sheet - Propylene industrial chain operating rates: The overall upstream operating rate of propylene is 74.1% (- 0.1%). The operating rates of various production methods and downstream products have changed to different degrees [139]. - National propylene balance sheet: The supply and demand situation has changed monthly, and the balance in December shows that the supply - demand pressure in the Shandong market is still high, maintaining a weak outlook [141][158]. - Shandong propylene balance sheet: The supply and demand in Shandong have changed monthly, and the current situation shows that the supply - demand pressure is relatively high [150][153]. Supply - Overall upstream propylene operating rate is 74.1% (- 0.1%). The operating rates of refineries, cracking units, PDH, and MTO have all changed. Some major PDH and MTO devices have restarted or are in the process of restarting, and some are planning to shut down [169][185][191]. - Propylene imports and exports: The import arbitrage space has been repaired [201]. Demand - Downstream propylene: The operating rates of PP, PP powder, PO, acrylonitrile, acrylic acid, n - butanol, octanol, phenol - acetone, and ECH have all changed. Some major devices have started, stopped, or adjusted their loads [204][221][230][243][248][257][263][267][278]. Downstream Inventory - PP and powder inventory: The inventories of PP producers, traders, and ports, as well as PP powder inventory, have all changed to some extent [282]. - Other downstream inventories: The inventories of phenol, acetone, acrylonitrile, etc., in warehouses have also shown different trends [292][293][295].