镍：结构性过剩转变，博弈矛盾并未改变，不锈钢：供需延续双弱运行，成本支撑逻辑增强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For nickel, the structural change in nickel surplus is expected to keep nickel prices stable in the short - term. The supply - demand of refined nickel has turned weak. Although the accumulation of refined nickel inventory has eased slightly, the overall surplus and the expectation of low - cost wet - process production may still drag down nickel prices. Considering the high uncertainty of Indonesian policy news from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year, short - selling at low levels is not recommended, and opportunities for short - selling at high levels can be considered with options for risk protection [1]. - For stainless steel, the supply - demand is weakly balanced, and cost limits the downside potential. The market is in the off - season, and the fundamentals lack upward drivers. However, the supply growth has slowed down following the demand, and the cost has increased, providing a certain safety margin. Interval trading strategies are recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Inventory Tracking - Refined nickel: On December 5th, China's social inventory increased by 262 tons to 54,978 tons. Among them, warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 1,455 tons to 34,764 tons, spot inventory decreased by 1,193 tons to 16,444 tons, and bonded - area inventory remained unchanged at 3,770 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,644 tons to 253,116 tons [3]. - New energy: On November 28th, the inventory days of SMM's upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines of nickel sulfate changed by +1, 0, 0 month - on - month to 5, 9, 7 days respectively. On December 4th, the precursor inventory changed by +0.2 week - on - week to 12.8 days. On December 5th, the ternary material inventory remained unchanged at 6.8 days week - on - week [4][5]. - Nickel - iron - stainless steel: On November 30th, SMM's nickel - iron inventory was 29,346 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. In October, SMM's stainless - steel factory inventory was 1.574 million tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 9% and 3% respectively. On December 4th, the total social inventory of stainless steel in the Steel Union was 1,080,275 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.54%. Among them, the inventory of cold - rolled stainless steel was 626,481 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.69%, and the inventory of hot - rolled stainless steel was 453,794 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33% [5]. 3.2 Market News - On September 12th, the Indonesian forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area due to violations of forestry license regulations, which is expected to affect nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons per month [6]. - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia [6]. - On September 22nd, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies in various regions of Indonesia for failing to provide claim and refund guarantees as required [6]. - On September 30th, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued Ministerial Regulation No. 17 (2025) regarding the procedures for the preparation, submission, and approval of the work plan and budget for mineral and coal mining business activities and the procedures for activity execution reports [7]. - US President Trump announced on October 10th that he might impose an additional 100% tariff on China from November 1st and implement export controls on "all key software" [7]. - The Indonesian government has suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, targeting projects producing restricted products such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [8]. - Due to strengthened safety inspections in Indonesian industrial parks, some nickel wet - process projects will reduce production in December, affecting about 6,000 nickel metal tons of production [8]. - On November 21st, New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran made dovish remarks, increasing investors' expectations of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [8]. 3.3 Weekly Key Data Tracking of Nickel and Stainless Steel The report provides data on various indicators such as the closing price, trading volume, price differentials, and import profits of nickel and stainless - steel futures and related products, including the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai nickel at 117,790 yuan, the closing price of the main contract of stainless steel at 12,500 yuan, etc. [10].