生猪：弱势难改，基差逻辑回归

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of live pigs is expected to remain weak in the near term, with supply pressure remaining high and demand growth having already been realized. The release of pressure from stocked pigs and the acceleration of slaughter will continue to weigh on spot prices [3]. - In the futures market, the LH2601 contract price is under pressure due to the weak spot market. If multiple regions initiate delivery simultaneously in early January, the cost of taking delivery will increase significantly, leading to a return of the basis logic. Attention should be paid to reverse spreads and proper stop - loss and take - profit measures [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs This Week's Market Review (12.1 - 12.7) - Spot Market: The price of live pigs oscillated and adjusted. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 21.1 yuan/kg (last week: 20.9 yuan/kg), the price of live pigs in Henan was 11.53 yuan/kg (last week: 11.38 yuan/kg), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1,546 yuan/head (last week: 1,548 yuan/head). Supply remained relatively loose as group enterprises reduced supply at the beginning of the month while the willingness of individual farmers to sell increased. Demand increased overall after the temperature drop. The average slaughter weight nationwide was 124.64KG (last week: 124.62KG), a 0.02% increase week - on - week [2]. - Futures Market: The price of live pig futures fluctuated weakly. The highest price of the LH2601 contract was 11,585 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,335 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,385 yuan/ton (last week: 11,465 yuan/ton). The basis of the LH2601 contract was 145 yuan/ton (last week: - 80 yuan/ton) [2]. Next Week's Market Outlook (12.8 - 12.14) - Spot Market: The spot price of live pigs will operate weakly. The overall slaughter progress in November was slow, and there was a large amount of secondary fattening backlog in October. Although demand was boosted after the temperature drop, the supply pressure was still significant, resulting in a continuous decline in prices. In December, enterprise slaughter decreased significantly, the demand increase after the temperature drop has been realized, and the active and passive selling of stocked pigs has begun. The price difference between fat and standard pigs has significantly narrowed, and there are also local epidemic impacts and cash - flow problems, so the slaughter will continue to accelerate, and the spot price will continue to be under pressure [3]. - Futures Market: The LH2601 contract closed at 11,465 yuan/ton on December 5th. In the first week of December, the enthusiasm of enterprises for slaughter was low, but the slaughter volume continued to increase. The price difference between fat and standard pigs weakened, the weight continued to rise, and the spot price was weak. The January contract still had a large premium over the lowest deliverable price, and deliveries were initiated in many places. If multiple regions initiate delivery simultaneously in early January, combined with the discount of small - sized pigs, the cost of taking delivery will increase significantly, leading to a return of the basis logic. Attention should be paid to reverse spreads, and the short - term support level of the LH2601 contract is 10,500 yuan/ton, with a pressure level of 12,000 yuan/ton [4]. Other Data - Basis and Calendar Spread: This week's basis was 145 yuan/ton, and the LH2601 - LH2603 calendar spread was 300 yuan/ton [8]. - Supply: The average weight this week was 124.64KG (last week: 124.62KG). In September, the pork production was 5.496 billion tons, a 3.5% increase month - on - month; in October, the pork import was 7.14 million tons, an 11.14% decrease month - on - month [11].