碳酸锂：现实环比走弱叠加预期充分计价，锂价上方承压

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of lithium carbonate futures contracts oscillated downward this week. The 2601 contract closed at 90,760 yuan/ton, down 3,880 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the 2605 contract closed at 92,160 yuan/ton, down 4,260 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price dropped 500 yuan/ton to 93,250 yuan/ton [1]. - In terms of supply and demand fundamentals, the destocking amplitude slowed down, and overseas shipments continued to increase. The supply is expected to grow, while the destocking speed is expected to slow down due to the seasonal weakness in power demand. Currently, the market lacks new positive drivers, and the trading logic may return to fundamentals, with short - term prices under pressure [2][3]. - The future market outlook is weak and oscillating. The destocking slowdown exerts downward pressure on prices. The price of the futures main contract is expected to trade in the range of 85,000 - 95,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended that upstream enterprises increase the hedging ratio, and there is no recommendation for inter - period trading [3][4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Side of Lithium Salt (Lithium Ore) - Nigeria's plan to suspend mining activities in the north for six months has limited short - term impact as mainstream lithium mines are not located in this area. Overseas resource shipments are steadily increasing. This week, Australian ore shipments increased by 0.4 million tons to 10.8 million tons, and Chilean shipments further increased to 9,617 tons, reaching a new high in the past four months. The weekly production of lithium carbonate increased by 74 tons to 21,939 tons [2]. 3.2 Mid - Stream Consumption of Lithium Salt (Lithium Salt Products) - The report presents multiple charts related to lithium salt products, including the price trends of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, processing costs, production volume by month, region, and raw material, as well as inventory and import - export volume [14][22][24]. 3.3 Down - Stream Consumption of Lithium Salt (Lithium Batteries and Materials) - The report shows charts of the monthly production and operating rates of lithium battery materials such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, as well as the import - export volume of ternary materials and the installed capacity of Chinese lithium batteries [29][33][35].