硅铁、锰硅产业链周度报告：硅铁、锰硅产业链周度报告-20251207

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost of alloy raw materials has increased, and the futures prices have shown strong performance. However, the resumption of production by large silicon - iron manufacturers may continue the previous pattern of loose supply and demand. There are also signs of potential loosening in the cost side, and attention should be paid to the supply changes in the alloy sector [3][5]. - The macro - environment is generally favorable, with the domestic official manufacturing PMI rising in November and the expected central economic work conference, along with overseas interest - rate cut expectations. Microscopically, the iron - water output has slightly decreased, and the demand support for raw materials is weak, with the contradictions in the alloy fundamentals continuing to accumulate [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Manganese - Silicon Fundamental Data - Production: Manganese - silicon production has gradually contracted. This week's output was 188,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.6%. The weekly operating rate was 36.71%, a decrease of 1.38 percentage points from last week. Large manufacturers in Ningxia and Guizhou have started the shutdown process [18][22]. - Demand: The overall demand for manganese - silicon is weak. The downstream steel mills' production is at a relatively high level, but the actual iron - water output has decreased. The 247 steel enterprises' blast - furnace operating rate was 87.08% this week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9 percentage points, and the blast - furnace daily average iron - water output was 232,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23,800 tons. The rebar output also decreased this week [27]. - Inventory: The inventory of sample enterprises has continued to rise. As of December 5, the inventory of 63 manganese - silicon sample enterprises was 375,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,500 tons. The warehouse - receipt inventory has also increased, and the steel - mill inventory has seasonally increased [34]. - Manganese Ore: The global manganese - ore departure volume has increased month - on - month. The departure changes need continuous tracking. The manganese - ore port prices have increased, which is closely related to the high demand for port clearance. The supply and demand of manganese ore may be relatively balanced [38][50]. 3.2 Silicon - Iron Fundamental Data - Production: Silicon - iron supply has expanded month - on - month. This week's output was 108,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.11 tons. The weekly operating rate was 33.81%, a decrease of 1.03 percentage points. Large manufacturers in Ningxia have completed maintenance and resumed production as scheduled [57]. - Demand: Silicon - iron demand has weakened. The downstream steel - mill production is at a relatively high level, but the actual iron - water output has decreased. The non - steel demand shows that the metal - magnesium output has increased, while the stainless - steel crude - steel output has decreased. The silicon - iron export volume in October was 25,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 36.14% [75]. - Inventory: The visible inventory of silicon - iron has increased, and there is still visible inventory pressure. As of December 5, the silicon - iron warehouse - receipt quantity was 13,588, a week - on - week increase of 2,681. The inventory of 60 sample enterprises was 72,640 tons, a week - on - week increase of 810 tons [77][83]. - Profit: The profit of silicon - iron has been compressed due to the increase in electricity - cost. Attention should be paid to the potential loosening signs of raw - material prices [93].