美豆周度报告-20251207

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the market lacks the basis for a bull market due to the expected bumper harvest in South America, but the downside is limited due to the potential improvement in demand. The market is expected to fluctuate with an upward trend, ranging from 1000 to 1200 cents per bushel [5] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Market Price - This week, the continuous closing price of US soybeans was 1105.25 cents per bushel, a decrease of 32.5 cents per bushel. The reasons include the delay of China's purchase commitment completion time and the accelerated sowing speed of South American soybeans [7] - This week, the price of US soybean meal closed at $304.7 per short ton, a decrease of $9.7 per short ton, pressured by the delay in China's purchase commitment [10] - This week, the price of US soybean oil fluctuated and slightly decreased, closing at 51.36 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.4 cents per pound. The decline in soybean meal bore the main pressure, and the rebound of palm oil provided additional support [13] 3.2 Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean production areas remained unchanged, with a drought rate of 64% [25] - The main soybean - producing areas in Brazil are expected to have good precipitation in the next two weeks, and the rainy season in Mato Grosso has returned with above - normal precipitation in the next two weeks. The precipitation in Rio Grande do Sul is good in the first week and slightly less in the second week. The rainfall forecast in South Mato Grosso is normal to high [27][32][34] - The precipitation in Argentina is expected to be less than normal in the next two weeks [39] - As of the week ending November 29, the soybean sowing progress in Brazil was 86%, compared with 78% last week and 90% last year [41] 3.3 Demand Factors - As of November 21, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.5 per bushel, down from $2.81 last week [44] - On October 31, the weekly export volume of US soybeans was 1.0284 million tons, down from 1.3881 million tons last week [46] - On November 28, the weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 0.9201 million tons, up from 0.8087 million tons last week [48] - The net sales of US soybeans this year was 1.2484 million tons, down from 1.4497 million tons last week (the week of October 31) [50] - The sales of US soybeans for the next year was 0 tons, the same as last week [52] - The quantity of US soybeans shipped to China in the week of October 31 was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [54] 3.4 Other Factors - The latest value of ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 0.893, remaining in the La Niña range [57] - The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased [59][61] - As of October 28, the net long position of soybeans was 153,500 lots, compared with 55,500 lots last week; the net long position of soybean oil was 8,100 lots, compared with 13,900 lots last week; the net short position of soybean meal was 20,000 lots, compared with a net short position of 65,900 lots last week [65][67][69]