国泰君安期货能源化工：聚乙烯：单体小幅反弹，供应仍有压力

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the valuation of PE decreased slightly, the monomer rebounded slightly, and there were expectations of increased supply and decreased demand. The cost - side support for PE was average, and the market supply - demand pattern was not optimistic. Q4 might gradually enter a pattern of increased supply and decreased demand, putting pressure on prices [6]. - The raw material - end crude oil fluctuated weakly, and the Northeast Asian ethylene rebounded by $5. The weighted profits of oil - based, coal - based, ethylene, and ethane were compressed, but no supply elasticity was observed. The downstream demand from the agricultural film and packaging film industries provided some support, but considering the decline in agricultural film production and the increasing supply - side pressure at the end of the year, the market situation was not favorable [6]. - The base difference weakened slightly, the monthly difference fluctuated at a low level, and the warehouse receipts decreased at a high level as the base difference strengthened periodically. The production profits of different production methods showed different trends, with oil - based and coal - based profits at relatively low levels [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Viewpoint Overview - Supply - The total effective capacity growth rate was 16%, and the domestic production growth rate was 18% in the first half of the year. The overall supply was loose, and the PE total start - up rate was 84.1% (- 0.4%). The subsequent supply was expected to decrease slightly, but overall, it would remain in a loose state. The import volume might increase significantly at the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026 [6]. - Demand - The start - up rate of the agricultural film industry continued to decline, and the demand for packaging films had a short - term increase but was not strong enough to support the market. The start - up rates of other downstream industries were expected to decline slightly, and the demand for raw materials was expected to decrease [6]. - Viewpoint - The cost - side support for PE was general, and the supply - demand pattern was not optimistic. The supply pressure would gradually increase at the end of the year, and the inventory removal was not smooth. The market was expected to enter a pattern of increased supply and decreased demand in Q4, with prices under pressure [6]. - Valuation - The base difference weakened slightly, the monthly difference fluctuated at a low level, and the warehouse receipts decreased at a high level as the base difference strengthened periodically. The production profits of different production methods were compressed to varying degrees [6]. - Strategy - For single - side trading, it was recommended to short on rebounds. The upper pressure level for the 01 contract was 6900, and the lower support level was 6600. Cross - period and cross - variety trading were not recommended for the time being [6]. 3.2 Polyethylene Spread and Profit - Price Spread - The futures price decreased, the basis in East and South China was relatively strong, while that in North China first weakened and then strengthened slightly after the Friday's decline in the futures price. The monthly difference fluctuated at a low level, and the warehouse receipts decreased as the basis strengthened [9][13]. - External Price - The CIF price in China decreased by $5 - 10. The price in the US stopped falling and stabilized, the low - pressure injection molding was weak, the LD in Europe recovered, and the high - pressure in Southeast Asia had a relatively high price ratio [20]. - Import Profit - The import window was compressed, the non - standard import profit was at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years, and the LD import profit was at a relatively high level within the year. The US inventory clearance pressure was relieved, and the subsequent import volume might remain high at the beginning of the year, but new import orders were relatively cautious [27]. - Non - Standard Price Spread - The non - standard price spread of HD film was relatively high due to tight supply, which might attract some petrochemical plants to switch production, and supply pressure might be realized in the middle and late November. The LD price spread started to weaken month - on - month [30]. - Upstream Price - Crude oil fluctuated at a low level, naphtha was flat, ethylene continued to rebound, and coal prices were relatively strong [35]. - Production Profit - The overall production profit was compressed, especially in the monomer segment. The profits of MTO and ethylene - purchasing processes decreased slightly [41]. 3.3 Polyethylene Supply and Demand - New Capacity - From the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, the standard products were intensively put into production, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 19.2% and an effective capacity growth rate of 16.7%. Before the 2605 contract, the capacity addition was limited [45]. - Existing Start - up - From the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, the capacity base increased, the total supply increased significantly, the start - up rate was at a neutral level, and the maintenance volume was temporarily the same as the previous year [46]. - Standard Product Supply - The LLDPE capacity was intensively put into production, the production ratio was at a neutral level, and the supply was expected to increase in December as the maintenance scale decreased compared to November [51]. - Maintenance Plan - The subsequent maintenance scale was expected to decline, and the monthly maintenance volume in Q4 was temporarily lower than the same period last year [53]. - Import and Export - The domestic production increased significantly, and the import volume was at a low level compared to the same period. The import volume might increase at the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026. The import of standard products was at a low level, and the import of LD was the same as last year. The Middle East sources from Saudi Arabia and the UAE increased slightly in October [56][59][62]. - Inventory - The supply gradually recovered, the upstream actively reduced inventory, and some downstream enterprises placed orders at low prices. The inventory of standard and non - standard products at factories continued to decline, and the middle and downstream mainly consumed their previous inventories [64][69]. - Downstream Demand - The start - up rate of the agricultural film industry continued to decline, the packaging film industry's start - up rate was the same as the previous year, the raw material procurement enthusiasm was limited, the profit was at a high level, and the orders were slightly lower than the same period. The demand for PE pipes improved slightly in Q4, and the raw material inventory was slightly lower than the same period. Overall, the downstream demand showed signs of marginal decline [71][78][84][87].