国泰君安期货能源化工：玻璃纯碱周度报告-20251207

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core Viewpoints Glass - Currently in a sideways market. Short - term rebound due to low valuation and high positions leading to short - covering, and concerns about further production cuts in the off - season. Future price will fluctuate between low near - month valuation and lack of upward drivers. Policy expectations and production cut expectations coexist in the short - term, but long - term pressure remains due to forward premium and high inventory [2] 纯碱 - Medium - term sideways with a downward bias. Supply surplus, forward premium in futures, and potential demand pressure from downstream production cuts are the main drivers for the decline. Although the decline drivers are weakening, the future delivery pressure cannot be underestimated, and the room for a continuous sharp decline is limited at current prices [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Supply - This week, the production line of float glass changed significantly, with three lines in Central China shut down and one in Northeast China ignited, resulting in a week - on - week decrease in production. As of November 27, 2025, there were 297 glass production lines (200,000 tons/day), 218 in production, 79 cold - repaired and shut down, with an operating rate of 73.40% and a capacity utilization rate of 77.25%. As of December 4, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 155,000 tons [2] - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired production lines was 17,730 tons/day, and that of ignited production lines was 14,510 tons/day. The potential new ignition production lines had a total daily melting volume of 14,190 tons/day, potential old - line复产 had 10,030 tons/day, and potential cold - repair production lines had 9,100 tons/day [7][8][9] Glass Demand - As of December 1, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 10.1 days, a week - on - week increase of 2.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.9%. The northern region's deep - processing orders decreased slightly, while the southern region (except Southwest) increased slightly, mostly with 1 - 7 - day scattered orders. The payment cycle for glass engineering orders was slow, extending the delivery cycle [2] Glass Inventory - As of December 4, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 59,442,000 heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2,920,000 heavy boxes (- 4.68%) and a year - on - year increase of 23.25%. The inventory days were 26.8 days, a decrease of 0.7 days from the previous period. Different regions showed different inventory trends, with overall inventory decline [2] Glass Price and Profit - Most manufacturers' prices remained stable. The price in Shahe was around 1,080 - 1,100 yuan/ton (a few reduced by 20 yuan/ton), in Central China's Hubei around 1,060 - 1,100 yuan/ton (a few manufacturers reduced by 20 yuan/ton), and in East China's Jiangsu and Zhejiang around 1,180 - 1,220 yuan/ton (mostly stable). The basis and monthly spread remained stable recently, with the basis slightly stronger and the monthly spread strong. The profit of petroleum coke was about 21 yuan/ton, and the profits of natural gas and coal - fired fuels were about - 223 and 6 yuan/ton respectively [18][22][26] Photovoltaic Glass - Price and profit: The recent market transaction weakened, and this situation is expected to continue. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels was 12 - 12.5 yuan/square meter, a week - on - week decrease of 2.00% with a larger decline than last week. The mainstream order price of 3.2mm coated panels was 19 - 19.5 yuan/square meter, a week - on - week decrease of 1.28% with a larger decline than last week [44][46] - Capacity and inventory: The market transaction started to weaken, and the inventory in some areas began to rise. The number of national photovoltaic glass production lines in operation was 402, with a total daily melting volume of 87,940 tons/day, flat week - on - week, and a year - on - year decrease of 7.32%. The sample inventory days were about 31.07 days, a week - on - week increase of 5.92% with a larger increase than last week [50][58] Soda Ash Supply - This week, some soda ash enterprises had equipment start - stop, with a slight increase in comprehensive supply. The national soda ash production was 703,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5,800 tons (0.82%). The light soda ash production was 322,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,300 tons, and the heavy soda ash production was 381,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,500 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 80.74%, a week - on - week increase of 0.66% [4] Soda Ash Demand - The main downstream float glass production decreased this week, with three production lines shut down for cold - repair and one ignited. The photovoltaic glass production lines were stable. Next period, the float glass production lines are expected to be stable, with an estimated weekly output of 1,084,900 tons. One photovoltaic glass production line of 1,000 tons is planned to be ignited, with an estimated in - production capacity of 627,800 tons next week [4] Soda Ash Inventory - As of December 4, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,538,600 tons, a decrease of 48,800 tons (3.07%) from last Thursday. The light soda ash inventory was 727,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,800 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 810,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 36,000 tons. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory decreased by 58,300 tons (3.65%) [4] Soda Ash Price and Profit - The nominal price in Shahe and Hubei was around 1,130 - 1,300 yuan/ton. The low - end price in Shahe was 1,130 yuan/ton, with a few slightly reducing prices. The manufacturers' ex - factory prices remained unchanged. The basis and monthly spread: Due to recent production cuts and inventory decline, the monthly spread should not be overly bearish. The profit of the joint - alkali process in East China (except Shandong) was - 98 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali process in North China was - 68 yuan/ton [77][82][86]