A股投资策略周报：近期政策端变化如何影响A股市场？-20251207

Group 1: Policy Changes Impacting A-Share Market - Recent policies focus on capital market and consumption, with adjustments in insurance capital risk factors and regulations for listed companies, emphasizing service consumption in cultural tourism and sports [2][5] - The upcoming Political Bureau meeting and Central Economic Work Conference in December are expected to address policies promoting domestic demand, new industry policies, and major project developments [5][20] - The adjustment of risk factors for insurance companies is anticipated to release significant capital into the market, potentially increasing investment in large-cap stocks and previously adjusted sectors [8][10][11] Group 2: Market Trends and Performance - The A-share market has shown an upward trend, driven by factors such as a decrease in U.S. ADP employment data, which raised expectations for a Fed rate cut, and improved foreign investment sentiment towards A-shares [5][6] - The manufacturing PMI rose in November, indicating improved economic conditions, with notable price increases in industrial metals, chemicals, and the semiconductor sector [5][6] - The overall valuation of A-shares has increased, with the Wind All A Index PE (TTM) rising to 66.4% historical percentile, reflecting a positive market sentiment [5][6] Group 3: Consumption Policies - Recent consumption policies emphasize service consumption, particularly in cultural tourism and sports, aligning with previous government strategies to enhance service supply [18][19] - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism and the Civil Aviation Administration have set goals to improve tourism services and expand domestic and international travel routes by 2027 [18][19] - The focus on service consumption is expected to continue, with potential fiscal subsidies linked to service consumption initiatives [18][19] Group 4: Future Economic Meetings - The Political Bureau and Central Economic Work Conference are expected to maintain a positive policy tone, focusing on domestic demand, industry policies, and infrastructure investments [20] - The meetings are likely to reinforce consumer support policies and enhance fiscal measures aimed at improving living standards and boosting service consumption [20] - Infrastructure projects are anticipated to commence, maintaining a high growth rate in construction investments [20]