美国经济数据走弱，美元转向下行

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "Oscillating" [5] Core View of the Report - The US economic data is weakening, and the US dollar is turning downward. The market has fully priced in a 25bp interest rate cut by the Fed in December. Although the Fed is expected to cut rates, the internal hawkish - dovish divide limits future rate - cut space. The Bank of Japan's potential rate hike is also affecting the market. Overall, the downward pressure on the US dollar index is increasing, waiting for the Fed's rate - cut confirmation [2][36][37] Summary by Directory 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite remains high. Most stock markets rise, and most bond yields increase, with the US Treasury yield rising to 4.14%. The US dollar index drops 0.47% to 99, and most non - US currencies appreciate. Gold prices fall 1% to $4198 per ounce, the VIX index drops to 15.4, and the spot commodity index rises. Brent crude oil rises 0.4% to $64.6 per barrel [1][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rise. In developed markets, the S&P 500 rises 0.31%. In emerging markets, the Shanghai Composite Index rises 0.37%. The Fed is in a silent period before the interest - rate meeting, and the market has fully priced in a 25bp rate cut in December. US economic data is mixed, but the downward trend persists. The domestic stock market shows a slight upward and volatile trend, with policy intentions to attract long - term funds but also facing year - end profit - taking [10][11][13] 2.2 Bond Market - Most global bond yields rise, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rises to 4.14%. The Fed's rate - cut expectation is fully priced, but inflation limits future rate - cut space. The Bank of Japan's potential rate hike and fiscal stimulus push up Japanese long - term bond yields, driving up European and American bond yields. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury yield rises to 1.833%, and the Sino - US interest - rate spread inversion widens [14][18][21] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index drops 0.47% to 99, and most non - US currencies appreciate. Offshore RMB rises slightly by 0.02%, the euro rises 0.38%, the pound rises 0.7%, the yen rises 0.54%, etc. [25][27][28] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold falls 1% to $4198 per ounce. The market has fully priced in the Fed's rate - cut expectation, and gold lacks upward momentum. Brent crude oil rises 0.4% to $64.6 per barrel. The oil supply - demand pattern is weak, but concerns about supply from potential US actions against Venezuela and the fall of the US dollar support the rise of the commodity index [29][30][31] 3. Hot - spot Tracking - US core PCE data is weaker than expected, and employment decreases. The latest manufacturing PMI is below 50, and ADP employment shows negative growth. The core PCE inflation pressure is relatively small, and a rate cut in December is likely [32][33][36] 4. Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: China's November import and export data - Tuesday: US November NFIB small - business confidence index, US October JOLTs job openings - Wednesday: China's November CPI, Bank of Canada interest - rate meeting - Thursday: Fed interest - rate meeting decision, US weekly initial jobless claims, US November PPI - Friday: Final November CPI values for Germany and France [38]