Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-12-07 08:24Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [3]. Core Views - The real estate market in China is expected to continue bottoming out, with core cities likely to stabilize sooner. Two major opportunities are highlighted: the rise of favorable housing policies and the strong performance of quality commercial enterprises during a monetary easing cycle, which may lead to a revaluation of consumer-oriented commercial real estate assets [3]. Industry Data - New home sales in 34 key cities totaled 2.762 million square meters for the week of November 29 to December 5, reflecting a 9% increase week-on-week. In December, new home sales are down 23.6% year-on-year [4][5]. - The inventory of unsold residential properties in 15 cities was 89.906 million square meters, with a slight week-on-week increase of 0.04%. The average months of inventory turnover decreased by 0.3 months to 23 months [20][21]. Policy and News Tracking - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasized the steady development of real estate investment trusts (REITs) and asset securitization. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) expanded the asset scope for REITs to include urban renewal projects [30][31]. - Local governments are implementing various housing subsidies, such as a maximum subsidy of 200,000 yuan for low-income families in Changzhou and a new housing subsidy policy in Nanning for multi-child families [30][31]. Company Dynamics - Poly Developments completed a change in its controlling shareholder, while Vanke extended the maturity of its medium-term notes. Several real estate companies reported their November sales data, with notable declines in sales volume and value for companies like Greentown China and China Overseas Development [3][36]. - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for mainstream A-share real estate companies for 2025 and 2026 are 22.1 and 19.3 times, respectively, while property management companies have P/E ratios of 13.7 and 12.3 times [3].