金融工程市场跟踪周报20251207：回调压力或已释放-20251207

• The report suggests that the short-term correction pressure in the A-share market may have been released, and the market has re-entered a volatile range[1][12] - The report recommends using "dividends + technology" as the main allocation strategy, with dividends potentially having an advantage in terms of volatility[1][12] - The report tracks the performance of major broad-based indices, noting that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37%, the Shanghai 50 by 1.09%, the CSI 300 by 1.28%, the CSI 500 by 0.94%, the CSI 1000 by 0.11%, the ChiNext Index by 1.86%, and the Beijing 50 Index by 1.49% during the week of December 1-5, 2025[1][13][14] - The valuation of broad-based indices as of December 5, 2025, shows that the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and ChiNext Index are at "moderate" levels, while the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, and CSI 300 are at "dangerous" levels[1][19][20] - The report tracks quantitative sentiment indicators, including volume timing signals, which are all cautious as of December 5, 2025[24][25] - The report discusses the "number of rising stocks in the CSI 300" sentiment indicator, which is used to gauge market sentiment by calculating the proportion of stocks with positive returns over a certain period[25][26] - The report evaluates the "moving average sentiment indicator," which uses the eight moving average system to judge the trend state of the CSI 300 index[33][36] - The report observes market profitability effects through cross-sectional volatility and time series volatility, noting that the short-term Alpha environment has improved for the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices but worsened for the CSI 1000 index[37][38][39][40] - The report tracks institutional research activities, noting that the top five stocks receiving the most attention from institutions during the week were Jereh Co., Ltd., Yihada, Hotgen Biotech, Espressif Systems, and Changan Automobile[41][42][53][54] - The report tracks the performance of stock index futures, noting that the main contracts for IF, IH, IC, and IM all rose during the week, with varying degrees of basis changes[56][57][58][59] - The report tracks southbound capital flows, noting a net inflow of HKD 113.49 billion during the week of December 1-5, 2025[66][68] - The report tracks changes in financing scale, noting that the financing balance as of December 4, 2025, was CNY 24,664.89 billion, an increase of CNY 99.89 billion from November 28, 2025[67][72] - The report tracks the ETF market, noting that stock ETFs had a median return of 1.06% and a net inflow of CNY 25.94 billion during the week, while cross-border ETFs had a median return of 0.48% and a net inflow of CNY 12.67 billion[69][70][71] - The report tracks the degree of fund concentration, noting that the degree of fund concentration decreased slightly from the previous week, while the excess returns of concentrated stocks and funds increased from the previous week[77][79][80]