Guohai Securities·2025-12-07 10:33Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has led to an increase in aluminum prices [6][11] - Domestic aluminum supply is slightly increasing due to new projects, while demand is expected to weaken as the year-end approaches [7][11] - The long-term outlook for the aluminum industry remains positive due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases [11] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of December 5, 2025, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2900.5 per ton, up $35.5 from the previous week, and up $262.0 year-on-year [24] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was ¥22,345.0 per ton, an increase of ¥735.0 week-on-week and ¥1,765.0 year-on-year [24] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was ¥22,150.0 per ton, up ¥720.0 week-on-week and ¥1,740.0 year-on-year [24] 2. Production - In November 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 3.637 million tons, a decrease of 106,000 tons month-on-month and 66,000 tons year-on-year [56] - The production of alumina in November 2025 was 7.439 million tons, down 346,000 tons month-on-month but up 152,000 tons year-on-year [56] 3. Inventory - As of December 4, 2025, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major consumption areas was 596,000 tons, unchanged week-on-week [7] - The inventory of alumina at electrolytic aluminum plants reached 3.365 million tons, with a weekly increase of 19,000 tons [34] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK): Price ¥30.67, EPS forecast for 2025E is ¥2.54, with a "Buy" rating [5] - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ): Price ¥14.07, EPS forecast for 2025E is ¥1.00, with a "Buy" rating [5] - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ): Price ¥27.20, EPS forecast for 2025E is ¥2.13, with a "Buy" rating [5] - China Aluminum (601600.SH): Price ¥11.40, EPS forecast for 2025E is ¥0.84, with a "Buy" rating [5] - Yun Aluminum (000807.SZ): Price ¥28.31, EPS forecast for 2025E is ¥1.88, with a "Buy" rating [5]