量化周报：当下的反弹大概率仍只是30分钟级别反弹-20251207

• The report discusses the construction of the A-share prosperity index, which is based on the Nowcasting target of the year-on-year net profit of the Shanghai Composite Index's parent company. The index reflects the high-frequency prosperity trend of the A-share market. The current prosperity index is at 21.37, showing an increase of 15.95 compared to the end of 2023, indicating an upward cycle[30][33][34] - The A-share sentiment index is constructed by dividing the market into four quadrants based on the direction of changes in volatility and trading volume. Among these, the quadrant with rising volatility and declining trading volume shows significant negative returns, while the others show significant positive returns. The sentiment index includes bottom-warning and top-warning signals, with the current comprehensive signal being bullish[34][40][45] - The report applies the BARRA factor model to construct ten major style factors for the A-share market, including size (SIZE), beta (BETA), momentum (MOM), residual volatility (RESVOL), non-linear size (NLSIZE), valuation (BTOP), liquidity (LIQUIDITY), earnings yield (EARNINGS_YIELD), growth (GROWTH), and leverage (LVRG). Recent factor performance indicates that high-profitability stocks performed well, while leverage factors underperformed[60][61][62] - The pure factor returns for the past week show that industry factors such as non-ferrous metals, national defense, and telecommunications outperformed the market-cap-weighted portfolio, while banking and media factors experienced significant pullbacks. Among style factors, the earnings factor achieved high excess returns, while residual volatility showed significant negative excess returns[61][65][70] - The report evaluates the performance of enhanced index portfolios. The CSI 500 enhanced portfolio achieved a weekly return of 0.60%, underperforming the benchmark by 0.34%. Since 2020, the portfolio has generated an excess return of 49.21% relative to the CSI 500 index, with a maximum drawdown of -5.73%[48][50][52] - The CSI 300 enhanced portfolio achieved a weekly return of 1.40%, outperforming the benchmark by 0.12%. Since 2020, the portfolio has generated an excess return of 38.20% relative to the CSI 300 index, with a maximum drawdown of -5.86%[55][56][58]