12月降息“已定”，如何看待明年美联储货币政策节奏？

Economic Outlook - The significantly lower-than-expected ADP employment data (-32,000 jobs) and inflation data (PCE index at +2.8%) have led the market to fully price in a Fed rate cut in December[1] - The market anticipates that the Fed will not be able to cut rates from January to April 2026 due to a potential economic "strong start" driven by fiscal and monetary policies[1] Interest Rate Projections - The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in December, with the next significant monetary easing likely occurring after June 2026[1] - The market currently prices in only 2.3 rate cuts for 2026, indicating skepticism about immediate easing after the new Fed chair takes office[2] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices rose by 0.31% and 0.91% respectively, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 12.18 basis points to 4.135%[1] - The dollar index fell by 0.47% to 98.99, reflecting market adjustments to the anticipated rate cuts[1] Global Economic Indicators - The ISM manufacturing PMI for November was reported at 48.2, below expectations of 49, while the services PMI was at 52.6, slightly above expectations[1] - The Michigan consumer sentiment index for December showed an initial value of 53.3, exceeding the expected 52[1] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected policy shifts from the Trump administration, excessive rate cuts leading to inflation rebound, and prolonged high rates causing liquidity crises in the financial system[3]