能源化工尿素周度报告-20251207

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of urea this week is a fluctuating decline. The short - term driving force is neutral, with the intraday price approaching the upper limit of valuation during the week, and spot trading weakening, leading to a short - term weak correction. Near the delivery of the 01 contract, the increase in warehouse receipts is obvious, and it is expected that the futures price will fluctuate under pressure. The support mainly comes from continuous purchases in the Northeast. The fundamental driving force of urea is currently neutral, and the continuous reduction of explicit inventory supports the price. In the medium - term, the 01 contract has strong fundamental pressure at 1700 yuan/ton, and the lower support is expected to be between 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Valuation End: Price and Spread - The report presents multiple charts showing urea basis, monthly spreads, and warehouse receipts, as well as domestic and international spot prices, including data from 2018 - 2025, which can help analyze price trends and market relationships [5][9][15][19] 3.2 Domestic Supply 3.2.1 Capacity - In 2025, the expansion pattern of urea production capacity continues. In 2024, the total new production capacity was 3920,000 tons, and in 2025, new production capacity is also being added. For example, Shaanxi Shanhua completed capacity replacement in January 2025, with a net increase of 400,000 tons [23]. 3.2.2 Production Plan - Many urea production enterprises have maintenance plans, including routine maintenance and loss - based maintenance. For example, Yangmei Fengxi Fertilizer Industry Co., Ltd. carried out routine maintenance from November 10 - 17, 2025 [25]. 3.2.3 Output - The production profit is around the break - even line, and the daily output of urea remains at a high level. The charts show the daily output, capacity utilization rate, and output of coal - based and gas - based urea from 2018 - 2025 [26][27]. 3.2.4 Cost - Raw material prices are stable, and the factory's cash - flow cost line has increased. The report provides cost calculations for Shanxi's fixed - bed factories and shows the complete cost trends of urea's fluidized - bed, fixed - bed, and natural - gas production processes from 2018 - 2025 [29]. 3.2.5 Profit - The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state. The report shows the cash - flow profit and production profit of different production processes from 2018 - 2025 [35][36]. 3.2.6 Net Import (Export) - During the reserve period, export policies are tightened. The report provides monthly net import (export) data from 2018 - 2025 (E), showing that exports have increased significantly in 2025 [41]. 3.3 Domestic Demand 3.3.1 Agricultural Demand - Agricultural demand shows seasonal strengthening. Different regions and crops have different fertilizer - using seasons. Also, the construction of high - standard farmland has increased the demand for urea from corn [47][50]. 3.3.2 Industrial Demand - Compound Fertilizer: The report shows the production cost, inventory, production profit, and capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers from 2019 - 2025 [54][55][56]. - Melamine: The report presents the production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate of melamine from 2018 - 2025 [57][58][60]. - Real Estate and Panels: The demand for panels from the real estate sector has limited support, but panel exports are resilient. The report provides data on panel export volume, real - estate completion area, and construction area from 2020 - 2025 [62][63]. 3.4 Inventory - The inventory of urea production enterprises has increased. As of December 3, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1,290,500 tons, a decrease of 73,400 tons from the previous week. As of December 4, 2025 (week 49), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 105,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from the previous week [65][68]. 3.5 International Urea - The report shows the FOB prices of large - granular urea in China, the Baltic Sea, and the Middle East, as well as the CFR price of large - granular urea in Brazil from 2018 - 2025, which can help analyze the international urea market [71][72][73]