铅产业链周度报告-20251207

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market is currently in a state where primary lead smelters are in a concentrated maintenance phase, while the profit of secondary lead has expanded and production has increased rapidly. At the consumer end, large lead - acid battery enterprises are ramping up production at the end of the year, which is expected to continue to support lead prices. The lead price is expected to be volatile and bullish, with a price range of 17,150 - 17,500 yuan/ton, and the overall strength analysis is neutral. The total inventory of lead in five regions has decreased, and the absolute inventory is at a historically low level for the same period. [3][7] - In terms of trading strategies, for the unilateral strategy, it is recommended that existing long positions be retained, while new long positions should be entered with caution, and attention should be paid to the profit changes of secondary lead. For the spread strategy, as the domestic lead inventory continues to decline, attention can be paid to the term positive arbitrage opportunities. [7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspect: Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, and Position - Price: The closing price of SHFE lead last week was 17,290 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.17%, and the closing price of the night session yesterday was 17,305 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.09%; the closing price of LmeS - lead3 last week was 2,005 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.21% [8]. - Spread: The LME lead basis decreased by 7.21 to - 49.15; the bonded area lead premium remained unchanged at 95; the Shanghai 1 lead spot basis increased by 5 to 25; the secondary lead - primary lead spread decreased by 50 to - 50. The spread between the near - month and the first - consecutive contract increased by 25 to - 10 [8]. - Inventory: The SHFE lead warrant inventory decreased by 10,182 to 16,078 tons; the SHFE lead total inventory decreased by 3,064 to 34,735 tons; the social inventory decreased by 11,400 to 23,600 tons; the LME lead inventory decreased by 19,625 to 243,550 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants decreased by 3.80% to 48.95% [8]. - Transaction and Position: The trading volume of SHFE lead last Friday was 44,508 lots, an increase of 1,089 compared with the previous week, and the position was 44,944 lots, a decrease of 2,978 compared with the previous week; the trading volume of LmeS - lead3 last Friday was 6,646 lots, an increase of 1,366 compared with the previous week, and the position was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 compared with the previous week [8]. 3.2 Lead Supply: Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, and Secondary Lead - Lead Concentrate: The import volume, inventory, actual consumption, and production volume of lead concentrate from 2021 to 2025 are presented in the form of charts. The import TC and domestic TC of lead concentrate, as well as the profit of imported and domestic lead concentrates, are also shown. The lead concentrate operating rate from 2021 to 2025 is also provided [29][30][31]. - Primary Lead and Secondary Lead: The production volume and weekly operating rate of primary lead from 2021 to 2025 are presented. The production volume of primary lead + secondary lead and secondary lead, as well as the operating rate of secondary lead from 2021 to 2025 are also shown. The by - product output of silver and the price of 1 silver are presented, along with the price of 98% sulfuric acid in East China [33][34][36]. - Waste Batteries and Secondary Lead: The raw material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises from 2021 to 2025 is presented. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost and profit of secondary lead from 2021 to 2025 are also shown. The net import of refined lead, the monthly import volume of Chinese lead ingots, the import profit and loss, and the export volume of lead ingots from 2021 to 2025 are presented [39][40][43]. 3.3 Lead Demand: Lead - Acid Batteries and Terminal - Batteries: The operating rate of lead batteries from 2021 to 2025 is presented, along with the monthly finished - product inventory days of lead - battery enterprises and dealers. The export volume of batteries from 2021 to 2025 is also shown [47]. - Consumption and Terminal: The actual consumption volume of lead from 2021 to 2025 is presented, along with the monthly production volume of automobiles and motorcycles from 2021 to 2025 [49].