基础化工行业周报（20251201-20251207）：供需拐点临近，看好化工行业景气持续修复-20251207

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [6] Core Views - The chemical industry is expected to see a continuous recovery in its economic environment, driven by improving supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic conditions [5][3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has turned positive, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) decline is narrowing, indicating a potential stabilization in chemical product prices [1] - Capital expenditures in the chemical industry are decreasing, which, combined with recovering demand, is likely to improve the supply-demand balance and enhance industry prosperity [3] Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The basic chemical sector has experienced a slight decline of 0.5% in the past week, ranking 21st among all sectors [10] - The basic chemical index's Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is at 43.8 times, while the Price-to-Book (PB) ratio is at 2.47 times, indicating a higher PE valuation compared to historical PB levels [2] 2. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The chemical industry has passed its peak production capacity, leading to a reduction in capital expenditures, with fixed asset investments down by 5.6% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025 [3] - The report highlights that the chemical product price index (CCPI) was 3882 points as of December 4, 2025, reflecting a 10.4% decrease since the beginning of the year [1] 3. Policy and Regulatory Environment - Recent government initiatives aim to optimize market competition and eliminate outdated production capacity in the chemical sector, which is expected to foster healthy industry development [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has introduced a growth stabilization plan for the petrochemical and chemical industry, targeting an average annual growth of over 5% from 2025 to 2026 [4] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in sectors such as phosphate chemicals, potassium fertilizers, pesticides, MDI, titanium dioxide, and lithium battery materials, which have strong cost control capabilities [5] - It also recommends companies in semiconductor materials, OLED materials, and other high-tech chemical fields that possess technological barriers and customer validation advantages [5]