外部环境改善,优质机构杠杆上限有望提升,看好板块估值修复
SINOLINK SECURITIES·2025-12-07 11:54

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" with an expected increase of over 15% in the next 3-6 months compared to the market [4]. Core Insights - The 14th Five-Year Plan presents a strategic opportunity for the securities industry to develop into a world-class investment bank and institution, emphasizing the need for innovation in financial products, services, and organizational structures [2][3]. - Regulatory support is evident, with efforts to stabilize the market and reduce volatility, which will significantly lower the performance fluctuations of brokerage firms [2]. - High-quality brokerages are expected to see an increase in leverage limits, enhancing capital efficiency and potentially improving ROE levels, as the new risk control indicators will allow for different capital preparation adjustments based on brokerage ratings [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Development Environment - The securities industry is positioned as a key service provider for direct financing and wealth management, with significant growth potential [2]. - The regulatory framework aims to create a stable market environment, reducing volatility and supporting brokerage performance [2]. Regulatory Changes - The upcoming regulations will provide more flexibility for high-quality brokerages, allowing them to increase leverage and improve capital utilization [3]. - There is a notable disparity in leverage ratios between leading domestic brokerages and their international counterparts, indicating room for growth [3]. Investment Recommendations - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio for the sector is 1.36, with a significant underperformance compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [3]. - Stock selection should focus on brokerages with strong fundamentals but misaligned valuations, as well as those with high A-H share premium rates [3].