能源化工合成橡胶周度报告-20251207

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The synthetic rubber is expected to operate weakly within the valuation range in the short - term, with the upper pressure at 10,600 - 10,570 yuan/ton and the lower support at 9,800 - 9,900 yuan/ton. The NR - BR spread is expected to oscillate at a high level. The butadiene is expected to oscillate in the short - term and maintain a low - level oscillation in the medium - term [2][4] - The butadiene is currently in the supply - demand pricing stage, with a low correlation with the raw material end [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Synthetic Rubber 3.1.1 Supply - This cycle, the output of high - cis butadiene rubber was 29,500 tons, a 4.76% increase from the previous cycle, and the capacity utilization rate was 73.53%, a 3.34 - percentage - point increase. Next cycle, Gaoqiao Petrochemical and Zhenhua New Materials are expected to resume production [4] - Some enterprises' production schedules are lower than normal levels, and some enterprises still have maintenance arrangements, which limit the increase in capacity utilization [4] 3.1.2 Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of sample tire enterprises is expected to increase next cycle, but the increase is limited due to slow shipment and production control by enterprises. In terms of substitution demand, the NR - BR spread remains high, and the overall demand for butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4] 3.1.3 Inventory - As of December 3, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 32,300 tons, a 0.34% decrease from the previous cycle. The inventory of sample production enterprises increased, while that of sample trading enterprises decreased slightly [4] 3.1.4 Valuation - The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 9,700 - 10,700 yuan/ton. The valuation logic has switched, with the NR - BR spread supporting the lower valuation and the cost line of butadiene also providing support. The upper valuation of the disk is around 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton [4] 3.1.5 Strategy - Unilateral: Operate weakly within the short - term fundamental valuation range, with upper pressure at 10,600 - 10,570 yuan/ton and lower support at 9,800 - 9,900 yuan/ton. Cross - variety: The NR - BR spread is at a high valuation and is expected to oscillate at a high level [4] 3.2 Butadiene 3.2.1 Supply - This cycle (20251128 - 1204), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 112,200 tons, a 0.80% decrease from the previous cycle. Next week, it is expected to be about 113,500 tons, an increase from this cycle [5] - Due to the high ethylene cracking start - up in China in the fourth quarter, the domestic butadiene output and imports are at a year - on - year high. However, the Asian regional start - up rate has declined, resulting in a slight reduction in butadiene supply [4] 3.2.2 Demand - In the medium - term, the start - up rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a year - on - year high. In the short - term, the rigid demand for butadiene from synthetic rubber is expected to increase in December. The demand from ABS is expected to remain constant, and that from SBS remains stable [4][7] 3.2.3 Inventory - This cycle (20251127 - 1203), the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples decreased by 7.41% from the previous week. The inventory of sample enterprises increased slightly, and the port inventory decreased by 13.11%. As of December 3, the latest inventory in East China ports was about 41,100 tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons from the previous cycle. The inventory is still at a relatively high level [7] 3.2.4 Viewpoint - In the short - term, the low absolute price drives downstream periodic restocking, the transaction improves, and the price stabilizes. The Asian butadiene start - up rate has declined slightly, and the fundamental pattern has improved marginally. In the medium - term, the high supply of butadiene remains the main contradiction, and the price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [5] 3.3 Capacity Expansion 3.3.1 Butadiene - In 2024, the total new capacity was 380,000 tons; in 2025, it was 940,000 tons; and it is expected to be 620,000 tons in 2026. The expansion speed and amplitude of butadiene are slightly faster than those of its downstream industries [12][14] 3.3.2 Downstream Products of Butadiene - Butadiene Rubber: The capacity increased by 200,000 tons in 2025 and is expected to increase by 190,000 tons in 2026 [20] - Styrene - Butadiene Rubber: The capacity increased by 60,000 tons in 2025 and is expected to increase by 220,000 tons in 2026 [22][23] - ABS: The capacity is expected to increase by 1,635,000 tons in 2025 and 1,300,000 tons in 2026 [30][32] - SBS: The capacity increased by 360,000 tons in 2025 and is expected to increase by 55,000 tons in 2026 [34][35]