能源化工甲醇周度报告-20251207

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Methanol Weekly Report [1] - Date: December 7, 2025 [1] - Authors: Huang Tianyuan, Yang Honghan [1] - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: Methanol is under pressure in the short - term, with limited upside space and a weak operation. In the medium - term, the high supply pressure of the 01 contract remains the main contradiction. In 2026, the fundamentals may improve marginally in the first quarter [3][4] Group 2: This Week's Methanol Summary Supply - This week (20251128 - 1204), China's methanol production was 2,023,465 tons, a decrease of 50 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 89.092%, a环比 decrease of 0.002%. Next week, production is expected to be around 2.0382 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate around 89.74% [4] - Ningbo Fude is expected to shut down for maintenance later, and the olefin开工 rate is expected to decrease [4] Demand - In the traditional downstream, dimethyl ether: Lankao Huitong's plant has a restart expectation next week, and the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to increase. Glacial acetic acid: The plants that resumed this week are expected to run at full capacity, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise. Formaldehyde: Xinjiang Heshuo has a shutdown expectation, and the capacity utilization rate may decline. Chloride: The overall capacity utilization rate of methane chloride is expected to rise, but the impact of high - priced liquid chlorine on enterprises needs attention [4] Inventory - As of December 3, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 361,500 tons, a decrease of 12,200 tons from the previous period, a环比 decrease of 3.26%; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 239,700 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons from the previous period, a环比 increase of 3.90% [4] - As of December 3, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.3494 million tons, a decrease of 14,100 tons from the previous period, a环比 decrease of 1.03%. The port inventory decreased slightly this week [4] Group 3: Price and Spread Basis, Monthly Spread, and Warehouse Receipts - Charts show the trends of CZCE methanol basis, 1 - 5 monthly spread, 5 - 9 monthly spread, and warehouse receipt quantity from 2020 - 2025 [7][9][10] Domestic Spot Prices - Charts present the trends of domestic methanol spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Henan, Lunan area, and Taicang from 2020 - 2025 [13][14][15][16] International Spot Prices - Charts display the trends of international methanol spot prices in China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR, and Rotterdam FOB from 2020 - 2025 [17][18][19] Port - Inland Price Spread - Charts show the trends of port - inland price spreads such as Taicang - Hebei, Taicang - Sichuan and Chongqing, Taicang - Henan, and Taicang - Lunan from 2020 - 2025 [20][21][22][23] Group 4: Supply New Capacity Summary - From 2024 - 2025, China added a total of 4 million tons/year of new methanol capacity in 2024 and 8.3 million tons/year in 2025. Overseas, 3.55 million tons/year of new capacity was added in 2024 and 1.65 million tons/year is expected to be added in 2025 [25] Maintenance Summary - A list shows the methanol maintenance plans of multiple enterprises, including shutdown and startup dates, daily losses, and total losses [28] Production and Capacity Utilization - Charts illustrate the trends of methanol production in China, Northwest China, and production by different processes (coke oven gas, coal single - alcohol, etc.) from 2018 - 2025, as well as capacity utilization rates in China, overseas, and different regions [29][31][33][34] Import - Related - Charts display the trends of China's methanol import volume, import cost, arrival volume, and import profit from 2020 - 2025 [38][39][40][41] Cost and Profit - Charts show the trends of methanol production costs and profits by different processes (coal - based, coke oven gas - based, etc.) in different regions from 2020 - 2025 [43][44][45][49][50] Group 5: Demand Downstream Capacity Utilization - Charts present the trends of capacity utilization rates of methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, etc. from 2020 - 2025 [53][54][55][56] Downstream Profits - Charts show the trends of production profits of methanol - to - olefins in East China and Shandong, as well as the production profits of formaldehyde, MTBE, and glacial acetic acid in different regions from 2020 - 2025 [60][61][64][65][66] Procurement Volume - Charts display the trends of procurement volumes of MTO production enterprises in China and different regions, as well as the procurement volumes of traditional downstream manufacturers in China and different regions from 2020 - 2025 [68][69][73][74] Raw Material Inventory - Charts show the trends of raw material inventories of traditional downstream manufacturers in China and different regions from 2020 - 2025 [78][79][80] Group 6: Inventory Factory Inventory - Charts illustrate the trends of methanol factory inventories in China, East China, Northwest China, and Inner Mongolia from 2018 - 2025 [83][84][85][86] Port Inventory - Charts present the trends of methanol port inventories in China, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong from 2018 - 2025 [89][90][91] Group 7: Strategy - Unilateral: The upside space is limited, and it is in a weak operation. The upper pressure of the 01 contract is 2,150 - 2,200 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 2,000 - 2,050 yuan/ton [4] - Inter - period: The 1 - 5 positive spread has peaked, and it is expected to enter a reverse spread pattern in the medium - term [4] - Inter - variety: The spread between MA and PP is in a volatile pattern [4]