行业研究|行业周报|煤炭与消费用燃料：美国缺电将拉动多大煤炭消费量？-20251207

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [8] Core Insights - The rapid development of the AI industry in the U.S. has led to electricity shortages, which are expected to drive an increase in coal consumption. By 2025, domestic coal demand in the U.S. could rise to between 547 million and 640 million tons, representing an annual growth of 27% to 48% compared to 2025 levels. This shift may significantly reduce U.S. coal exports and disrupt the global coal trade balance, providing marginal support for coal prices globally and in China [2][6][21] Summary by Sections Coal Consumption and Production - In the first nine months of 2025, U.S. coal consumption reached 197.09 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%. Coal production during the same period was 236.29 million tons, up 5.0% year-on-year. Coal imports surged by 53.1% to 1.2 million tons, while exports fell by 11.4% to 42.45 million tons [6][16][26] Market Performance - The coal index in the Yangtze River region increased by 1.25%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.03 percentage points. The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 785 RMB per ton, down 31 RMB from the previous week. The price of coking coal at Jingtang port was 1,630 RMB per ton, also down 40 RMB [5][28][51] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the coal market may remain robust due to strict safety regulations and low inventory levels at mines and ports. If cold weather increases daily consumption, coal prices could rise further. The report emphasizes the need to monitor extreme weather, procurement rhythms, and port inventory changes [5][29][45]