南华期货玻璃纯碱产业周报：近端博弈，远端预期-20251207

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The core contradictions affecting the trends of glass and soda ash are the potential cold repairs of some glass production lines from December to before the Spring Festival, the near - month contract following the delivery logic with ongoing disputes, and the cost - based pricing and supply - demand situation of soda ash. The short - term trend is unclear, and observation is recommended. [1] - For glass, near - end cold repairs are mostly realized, with daily melting dropping to around 155,000 tons, and there is an expected further decline in December. The 01 contract focuses on warehouse receipt games, and the spot price is restricted by high intermediate inventories and the off - season. For soda ash, it fluctuates with cost, with new capacity pending and high inventories and high production expectations suppressing the absolute price. [2] - The trading strategy suggests observing the 01 contract's warehouse receipt game and focusing on expectations for the 05 contract. In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see. The glass 1 - 5 reverse spread should be put on hold, and on the 05 contract, consider going long on glass and short on soda ash. [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - From December to before the Spring Festival, some glass production line cold repairs are yet to be realized, which may impact far - month pricing and market expectations. [1] - The near - month 01 contract follows the delivery logic, mainly involving warehouse receipt games, which may become clear in mid - to late December. Soda ash is priced based on cost, with new capacity pending and production at a medium - to high level. Without a trend of production reduction, the valuation of soda ash has limited upward potential, and the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to decline due to the renewed expectation of glass cold repairs. [1] - In reality, after partial glass cold repairs, the spot price is temporarily stable, but there may be a price cut in mid - to late December. The inventory of futures - cash traders in Shahe and Hubei remains high, and the spot pressure persists during the off - season. Soda ash is still in an oversupply expectation, with strong upward suppression, but there is cost support in the long run, and the price may fluctuate. [1] 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend Judgment: The near - end spot situation is still controversial. The cold repair expectation and high intermediate inventories require observation of sustainability, including unexpected cold repairs and spot feedback. Cost and supply expectations affect far - month pricing. [6] - Strategy Suggestions: The 01 contract's game is about warehouse receipts, while the 05 contract is more about expectations. The short - term driving force is unclear, so it is recommended to observe. [6] - Basis, Month - Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations: For the month - spread strategy, the warehouse receipts are still uncertain, so the glass 1 - 5 reverse spread should be temporarily put on hold. For the hedging arbitrage strategy, consider going long on glass and short on soda ash on the 05 contract. [7] 3.1.3 Basic Data Overview - Glass Spot Price: On December 7, 2025, the prices of major glass products in Shahe remained unchanged compared to the previous day. The average price was 1,049 yuan/ton. Among different regions, the prices in most areas were stable, with some areas such as South China, Southwest China, and Zhejiang having price increases, and Shahe (large - plate) having a price decrease. [9][10] - Glass Futures Price/Month - Spread: On December 5, 2025, compared to the previous day, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts all decreased, with daily declines of 1.41%, 1.01%, and 1.58% respectively. The month - spreads and basis also showed corresponding changes. [11] - Glass Daily Sales - to - Production Ratio: The sales - to - production ratios in different regions such as Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China fluctuated in the recent period. [12] - Soda Ash Spot Price/Spread: The prices of heavy and light soda ash in various regions were stable on December 5, 2025, compared to the previous day. The spread between heavy and light soda ash was mostly 50 yuan/ton, except for 100 yuan/ton in Central China. [12] - Soda Ash Futures Price/Month - Spread: On December 5, 2025, compared to the previous day, the prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts all decreased, with daily declines of 1.54%, 1.47%, and 2.15% respectively. The month - spreads and basis also changed accordingly. [13] 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: Some glass production line cold repair expectations are yet to be realized in December, and the supply is expected to shrink further. If the futures price continues to fall, unexpected cold repairs may increase. [14] - Negative Information: The high intermediate inventory of glass persists, and the spot pressure remains. There is still room for price cuts, which affects the delivery price of the 01 contract. New soda ash production capacity (such as 2.8 million tons in Alxa Phase II and 700,000 tons in Yingcheng Xindu) may be launched in mid - to late December, increasing the supply pressure. The renewed expectation of glass cold repairs affects the rigid demand for soda ash. [15] 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Whether there are further clear instructions in industrial policies. [18] - The glass sales - to - production ratio, spot price, and soda ash spot transaction situation. [18] 3.3 Disk Interpretation - The long - short game of the glass main 01 contract this week may continue until near the delivery. The increase in near - end glass cold repairs, combined with high intermediate inventories, leads to a controversial spot situation with limited elasticity. The far - month has expectations of supply reduction and cost increase, which may affect market pricing and expectations. [17] - The basis and month - spread structure of glass and soda ash remain in a C - structure. For glass, as cold repairs increase, the 1 - 5 spread narrows, and the far - month has expectations of cost increase and cold repairs. For soda ash, without a trend of production reduction, the industry's oversupply expectation remains, new capacity is pending, and the far - month has cost increase expectations. [24][25] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain - Glass: Natural gas production lines are in a loss, while petroleum - coke and coal - gas production lines have a small profit. [44] - Soda Ash: The cash cost of the ammonia - soda process (in Shandong) is around 1,265 yuan/ton, and the cash cost of the combined - soda process (mainly in Central China) is around 1,180 yuan/ton. [45] 3.4.2 Import and Export Analysis - Glass: The monthly average net export of float glass is 60,000 - 70,000 tons, accounting for 1.4% of the apparent demand, with limited impact. [50] - Soda Ash: The monthly average net export of soda ash is 180,000 - 210,000 tons, basically in line with expectations, accounting for 5.8% of the apparent demand, with a significantly higher proportion than last year. The export in October exceeded 210,000 tons, maintaining high expectations. [50] 3.5 Supply and Demand and Inventory 3.5.1 Supply - Side and Projections - Glass Supply: The daily melting of glass has dropped to around 155,000 tons, and some cold repair production lines are yet to be realized in December, with an expected further decline in daily melting. [55] - Soda Ash Supply: This week, the soda ash supply increased due to the resumption of some devices and decreased due to the reduction of others. Shandong Haihua is expected to reduce production in the middle and late period. Currently, the daily production of soda ash has slightly rebounded to around 103,000 - 105,000 tons. It is rumored that new production capacity in Alxa Phase II (2.8 million tons) and Yingcheng Xindu (700,000 tons) may be put into production in mid - to late December. [59][60] 3.5.2 Demand - Side and Projections - Glass Demand: The spot price may be cut, and attention should be paid to the spot feedback in mid - to late December. The high intermediate inventory continues, and the spot elasticity is expected to be limited. As of the end of November, the glass deep - processing orders were 10.1 days, with a month - on - month increase of 2.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.9%. The deep - processing raw - glass inventory was 9.4 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. The cumulative apparent demand of glass from January to December (excluding imports and exports) is estimated to decline by 7%. [62] - Soda Ash Demand: Currently, the total daily melting of float glass and photovoltaic glass is 243,900 tons, with a month - on - month decline, and the daily rigid demand for soda ash is about 48,800 tons. With the cold repairs of float and photovoltaic glass, the rigid demand for soda ash has further weakened. The finished - product inventory of photovoltaic glass continues to accumulate, and attention should be paid to its sustainability. The cumulative apparent demand of soda ash from January to October (considering imports and exports) is estimated to decline by 1%. [77] 3.5.3 Inventory Analysis - Glass: According to Longzhong data, the manufacturer's inventory is 59.442 million weight - boxes, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.92 million weight - boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 4.68%, and a year - on - year increase of 23.25%. The inventory days are 26.8 days, 0.7 days less than the previous period. The intermediate inventories in Shahe and Hubei remain high, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking situation. [86] - Soda Ash: The soda ash inventory is 1.5386 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 48,800 tons. Among them, the light soda ash inventory is 727,800 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 12,800 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory is 810,800 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 36,000 tons. The delivery warehouse inventory is 556,700 tons (a decrease of 27,100 tons). The total inventory of the factory warehouse and delivery warehouse is 2.0953 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 75,900 tons. The upstream inventory is being de - stocked, and the replenishment of light and heavy soda ash is good. [86]