南华期货丙烯产业周报：维持宽松格局-20251207

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The propylene market maintains a loose pattern, with the 03 contract expected to oscillate between 5,700 - 6,200 yuan/ton. The market is affected by a generally loose fundamental situation and the weak trend of PP. Although the supply - demand gap has improved compared to October, enterprise inventories remain high. The continuous decline of PP prices and the significant compression of its price difference with propylene also suppress the propylene market [2][3][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The "anti - involution" issue may be repeatedly submitted, affecting market expectations, but there is no actual progress. The overall chemical sentiment was weak this week, with prices falling again after a slight rebound last week [2]. - Spot prices are easily affected by individual device fluctuations. Although the supply - demand difference changed little this week, spot prices remained stable due to the postponed restart of some devices. In the Shandong region, Hengtong restarted this week, and Binhua is expected to restart in mid - December, increasing the overall supply expectation [2]. - The main downstream product, PP, has sufficient supply. The price difference between PP and propylene has significantly shrunk recently, with some PP devices entering maintenance, but overall PP operation remains at a high level, providing demand support while also suppressing the propylene market [2]. - The price of external propane at a low level rebounded with crude oil, and the premium has strengthened significantly recently. The calculated cost is around 6,250 - 6,500 yuan/ton, and the PDH profit continues to show losses. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback from the profit, but there are currently no more maintenance plans [2]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Market Positioning: The market is expected to be weakly oscillating, with the PL03 price range between 5,700 - 6,200 yuan/ton. The overall trend remains weakly oscillating. In the short term, it gets some support from the significant increase in costs, but the upward potential is limited. The negative feedback from the PDH end should be monitored, and the market is regarded as weak until more negative feedback emerges [16]. - Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedge Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations - Basis Strategy: The basis is expected to oscillate. This week, due to the postponed restart of production, spot prices remained stable, while the futures market was affected by the overall chemical sentiment and the weak PP price, causing the basis to strengthen [17]. - Calendar Spread Strategy: Consider reverse arbitrage for the 1 - 3 spread when the price is high [17]. - Hedge Arbitrage Strategy: Consider widening the PP - PL spread when the price is low and wait and see; consider widening the PL/PG ratio and wait and see. The price difference between PP pellets and propylene is around 100 yuan/ton, and that between PP powder and propylene is around 600 yuan/ton in the spot market, and it has also compressed to around 440 yuan/ton in the futures market. One can enter the market when the price is low and pay attention to the maintenance situation of the PP end [17]. - Recent Strategy Review - The strategy of narrowing the PP01 - PL03 spread (take profit) was proposed on November 7 and took profit on November 20. Currently, wait and see for opportunities to enter the market to widen the spread. - Hold the reverse arbitrage of PL01 - 03, which was entered on December 5. Conduct range - bound operations on PL01 - 03, mainly focusing on reverse arbitrage [17]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished product inventories worried about propylene price drops, they can short - allocate propylene futures at high prices according to their inventory to lock in profits. Sell PL2603 futures contracts with a hedging ratio of 50% when the price is between 6,100 - 6,200 yuan/ton. They can also sell call options on PL2603C6200 to collect premiums and reduce costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 80 - 100 [18]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventories that hope to purchase according to orders, they can buy propylene futures at low prices to lock in procurement costs. Buy PL2603 futures contracts with a hedging ratio of 25% when the price is between 5,700 - 5,800 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options on PL2603P5700 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 100 - 120 [18]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information - The Russia - Ukraine peace talks have no results, and there is still some distance from reaching an agreement, causing a slight increase in the crude oil market [23]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25BP in December is 93% according to Polymarket [23]. - Spot prices are relatively stable [23]. - Negative Information Some of the currently shut - down PDH devices will gradually restart. If there is no more negative feedback, the supply side will remain loose [20]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - The Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference will be held [24]. - The US October PCE price index will be released [24]. - The US FOMC interest rate decision will be announced [24]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Domestic Market - Unilateral Trend and Capital Flow: This week, the PL03 contract oscillated downward. The net positions of major profitable seats increased, the net positions of the top five long - position holders in the dragon - tiger list remained unchanged, the top five short - position holders significantly increased their positions, the net long positions of profitable seats slightly increased, the net long positions of foreign capital slightly decreased, and the net short positions of retail investors slightly increased [22]. - Technical Analysis: The PL03 contract was generally weakly oscillating this week. The daily - line middle track still exerted pressure, and currently, there seems to be support around 5,800 yuan/ton [22]. - Basis and Calendar Spread Structure - This week, the basis of propylene 03 was 172 yuan/ton, an increase of 112 yuan/ton compared to last week. Spot prices remained stable while futures prices declined. The 01 - 03 calendar spread of propylene was + 126 yuan/ton, an increase of 69 yuan/ton compared to last week [27]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Up - Mid - Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - Upstream Profit: This week, the gross profit of major refineries was 593 yuan/ton (- 29 yuan/ton), and that of Shandong local refineries was 232 yuan/ton (+ 59 yuan/ton). The cracking end has been relatively stable recently due to the resumption of production at Zhenhai [29]. - Mid - stream Profit: The propane cracking profit has significantly declined, reducing the economic viability of LPG cracking. The PDH profit based on FEI as the cost was - 350 yuan/ton (+ 80 yuan/ton), and that based on CP as the cost was - 505 yuan/ton (+ 47 yuan/ton). The PDH profit remains in a loss state [31]. - Down - stream Profit - The price difference between PP拉丝 and propylene is 100 yuan/ton (- 75 yuan/ton), and that between PP powder and propylene is 60 yuan/ton (- 75 yuan/ton), with the spread compressed to a low level [35]. - The profit of epoxy propane PO/SM is 1,365 yuan/ton (+ 126 yuan/ton), the HPPO profit is - 834 yuan/ton (+ 61 yuan/ton), and the chlorohydrin method profit is 178 yuan/ton (- 106 yuan/ton) [35]. - The acrylonitrile profit is - 1,189 yuan/ton (+ 58 yuan/ton), oscillating this week but with large overall losses [35]. - The acrylic acid profit is - 78 yuan/ton (- 18 yuan/ton), with the profit weakening, and attention should be paid to the subsequent operation situation [35]. - The butanol profit is + 182 yuan/ton (+ 657 yuan/ton), with a significant improvement in profit [35]. - The octanol profit is + 702 yuan/ton (+ 607 yuan/ton), with the profit recovering from a low level as the supply decreases [35]. - The phenol - acetone profit is - 990 yuan/ton (- 367 yuan/ton), with the profit weakening. Currently, PO, butanol, and octanol have some profits, while others are mostly in a loss state [35][36]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking The price difference between Chinese and South Korean propylene has recently increased slightly, with CFR China at 745 US dollars (+ 10 US dollars) [45]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction in the Shandong Market This week, both supply and demand in the Shandong market increased, and spot prices slightly rose. The increase in supply mainly came from the resumption of production at Hengtong, and the increase in demand came from the resumption of production and increased operation of devices such as PO and acrylic acid. In the future, supply will slightly increase with the resumption of production at Binhua [47]. 5.2 Market Supply Side and Deduction This week, there were both start - ups and shut - downs. The overall propylene operation rate was 74.06% (- 0.06%), still at a high level [50]. 5.3 Demand Side and Deduction - PP: This week, the price difference between PP pellets and powder and propylene continued to shrink, and the overall operation rate declined, but there were not many maintenance plans. The price difference between PP powder and propylene has compressed to a low level, and maintenance has increased [62][70]. - Epoxy Propane: This week, the price of epoxy propane declined, the profit of the chlorohydrin method decreased, but the inventory was still in a destocking state. This week, Shandong Xinyue and Qixiang Tengda increased their operation rates, while Shandong Binhua, Zhonghai Jingxi, and Shandong Minxiang slightly decreased their operation rates, and the overall operation rate slightly increased [71]. - Acrylonitrile: There was little change [73]. - Butanol and Octanol - Ningxia Jiuhong restarted and increased its operation rate. The 450,000 - ton device of Tianjin Bohua is expected to start operation at the end of December, and the 140,000 - ton device of Jiangsu Huachang is expected to start operation in mid - to - late December [78][80]. - Acrylic Acid: Shanghai Huayi slightly decreased its operation rate, Wanhua slightly increased its operation rate, Binhai Chemical stopped for maintenance, and Qixiang Tengda recently restarted [84]. - Phenol - Acetone: Taihua Xingye is expected to conduct maintenance for about one and a half months [86]. - Shandong Regional Demand: Demand in the Shandong region increased this week. The increase mainly came from the resumption of production and increased operation of PP, PO, acrylonitrile, and octanol [87].