锡周报-20251207

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, tin prices broke through upwards, surpassing the 300,000 range with a weekly increase of over 4%. The price increase was mainly driven by macro funds. The stabilization of the previous decline in US stocks and the recovery of AI stock valuations, combined with the renewed turmoil in the Democratic Republic of the Congo on the supply side and macro sentiment, pushed up the price. However, the fundamentals may not support the price increase. After the price rises, domestic social inventories continue to accumulate, domestic spot premiums decline, and the tin Back structure deepens. Currently, the market open interest has reached a historical high, and the market capital strength may weaken. It is believed that the increase in tin prices may slow down, and there is a risk of weekly adjustment [3][5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Open Interest) 3.1.1 Spot - This week, the LME 0 - 3 premium was $70 per ton, and the domestic spot premium was 50 yuan per ton. Overseas premiums declined, while premiums in Baltimore and Taiwan regions increased [9][14]. 3.1.2 Spread - This week, the tin inter - month structure changed from the previous B structure to the C structure [17]. 3.1.3 Inventory - This week, domestic social inventories increased by 187 tons, and futures inventories increased by 420 tons. LME inventories increased by 75 tons, and the ratio of cancelled warrants rebounded to 9.56% [23][28]. 3.1.4 Capital - As of this Friday, the settled capital of SHFE tin was 344,577 million yuan, and the capital flow in the past 10 days was in the inflow direction [34]. 3.1.5 Transaction and Open Interest - This week, the trading volume and open interest of SHFE tin increased slightly, with a significant increase in open interest. The trading volume of LME tin rebounded slightly, and the open interest continued to rebound [36][42]. 3.1.6 Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio - This week, the open interest - to - inventory ratio of SHFE tin rebounded slightly [45]. 3.2 Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) 3.2.1 Tin Ore - In October 2025, the output of tin concentrates was 5,972 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.48%; the imports were 11,632 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.54%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease was 25.72%. This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan per ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan decreased to 8,000 yuan per ton. The profit - and - loss level of tin ore imports rebounded slightly [49][50]. 3.2.2 Smelting - In November 2025, the domestic tin ingot output was 15,960 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.06%. This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces was 69.53%, a slight decline from last week [52][54]. 3.2.3 Import - In October 2025, domestic tin ingot imports were 526 tons, exports were 1,480 tons, and the net export was 945 tons. Among them, the tin ingots imported from Indonesia to China were 124 tons. The latest import profit - and - loss was - 25,012 yuan per ton [58]. 3.3 Tin Demand (Tin Products, End - Users) 3.3.1 Consumption - In October 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 15,136 tons, and the actual consumption was 16,342 tons [62]. 3.3.2 Tin Products - This week, the downstream processing fees declined slightly. The operating rate of solder enterprises in October rebounded to 73.1%. The production and sales of major tin - plated sheet enterprises in August rebounded slightly [64]. 3.3.3 End - User Consumption - In October 2025, the output of end - user products showed mixed performance. The monthly output of integrated circuits, electronics, smartphones, and household appliances such as air conditioners declined. However, the consumption of household appliances and new energy showed a month - on - month rebound. This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded, showing the same trend as tin prices [66][68][71].