Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The structural surplus of refined nickel has shifted, and the contradiction between supply and demand has eased slightly. However, the overall surplus and the expected increase in low - cost wet - process supply may still drag down nickel prices. It is not recommended to short at low levels, and short - selling opportunities at high levels can be considered, combined with options for risk protection [4]. - Stainless steel: The supply and demand are in a double - weak state, but the cost provides a certain support. It is recommended to focus on range - bound operations [5]. - Industrial silicon: The inventory has been accumulating for three consecutive weeks. The supply is expected to decrease in December, and the demand is weak. The price may rise slightly due to environmental protection news in Xinjiang, but the upside space is limited [28][33]. - Polysilicon: The fundamentals are weakening, and the market sentiment is bearish. The price fluctuation is expected to increase next week. It is recommended to wait and see [28][34]. - Lithium carbonate: The price is under pressure. The supply is expected to increase, and the destocking speed will slow down. It is recommended that upstream enterprises increase the hedging ratio [62][64]. - Palm oil: It is waiting for the confirmation of the price bottom based on the production reduction in Malaysia in December. If the production is successfully reduced, the price may rise in the first quarter [100][101]. - Soybean oil: The short - term rebound of US soybeans is limited. It is recommended to hold a small long position during the short - term rebound of palm oil and wait for the resonance of themes in the first quarter [100][103]. - Soybean meal: If there is no unexpected positive news, the price is expected to be weak, following the trend of US soybeans [112][116]. - Soybean: The spot price is strong, but the futures price is weak due to the rumor of state - reserve sales [112][116]. - Corn: There is a risk of price correction after reaching a high level. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation in the northern ports [130][135]. - Sugar: Internationally, it is in a low - level consolidation state; domestically, it is expected to run weakly [157][159]. - Cotton: The upward trend has slowed down. The ICE cotton is under pressure, and the Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be oscillatingly strong, but the upside space is limited [187][203]. - Live pigs: The spot price is weak, and the futures price is expected to be weakly oscillating. Attention should be paid to the basis logic and anti - arbitrage opportunities [206][208]. - Peanuts: The spot price is regionally differentiated. The near - term futures have support, while the long - term futures have more uncertainties. Attention should be paid to the acquisition strategy of large oil mills [218][219]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: The structural surplus of refined nickel has shifted, and the supply - demand relationship has changed. The supply and demand of stainless steel are both weak, but the cost provides support [4][5]. - Inventory Tracking: The inventory of refined nickel and stainless steel has changed. For example, the LME nickel inventory has decreased, and the stainless - steel social inventory has decreased slightly [6][8]. - Market News: There are various news, such as the takeover of a nickel mine in Indonesia, the suspension of subsidies for Russian nickel imports in China, and the potential production reduction in Indonesia's nickel wet - process projects [9][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Price Trends: The price of industrial silicon has decreased, and the price of polysilicon has also declined [28]. - Supply - demand Fundamentals: The inventory of industrial silicon and polysilicon has been accumulating. The supply of industrial silicon may decrease in December, and the demand is weak. The supply of polysilicon is expected to be slightly reduced, and the demand has declined [29][30][31]. - Future Outlook: The price of industrial silicon may rise slightly due to environmental protection news, but the upside is limited. The price fluctuation of polysilicon is expected to increase [33][34]. Lithium Carbonate - Price Trends: The futures and spot prices of lithium carbonate have declined [62]. - Supply - demand Fundamentals: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the destocking speed is slowing down [63]. - Future Outlook: The price is expected to be weakly oscillating, and upstream enterprises are recommended to increase the hedging ratio [64][67]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Previous Week's Views: Palm oil was in a range - bound state, and soybean oil was following the trend of the oil sector [100]. - This Week's Views: Palm oil is waiting for the production reduction in Malaysia in December to confirm the price bottom. Soybean oil's short - term rebound is limited, and it is recommended to hold a small long position [101][103]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - Previous Week's Situation: The prices of US soybeans, domestic soybean meal, and soybeans have declined. The spot price of soybeans is strong, while the futures price is weak [112]. - Next Week's Forecast: If there is no positive news, the prices of soybean meal and soybeans are expected to be weakly oscillating [116]. Corn - Market Review: The spot and futures prices of corn have risen. The supply and demand situation has changed, and the inventory of corn starch has increased [130][131][134]. - Market Outlook: There is a risk of price correction after reaching a high level, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation in the northern ports [135]. Sugar - This Week's Review: The international and domestic sugar prices have declined. The production and consumption of major sugar - producing countries have changed [157][158]. - Next Week's Outlook: Internationally, it is in a low - level consolidation state; domestically, it is expected to run weakly [159]. Cotton - Market Data: The prices of ICE cotton, Zhengzhou cotton, and cotton yarn have changed [190]. - Fundamentals: The export data of US cotton is not ideal. The domestic cotton price has risen, and the downstream situation is deteriorating [191][196][198]. - Operation Suggestions: ICE cotton may be supported at 63 - 64 cents/pound. Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be oscillatingly strong, but the upside space is limited [203]. Live Pigs - This Week's Review: The spot price of live pigs has oscillated, and the futures price has been weakly oscillating [206]. - Next Week's Outlook: The spot price is expected to be weak, and the futures price may be weakly oscillating. Attention should be paid to the basis logic and anti - arbitrage opportunities [207][208]. Peanuts - Market Review: The spot price of peanuts has declined, and the futures price has also decreased [218]. - Market Outlook: The spot price is regionally differentiated. The near - term futures have support, while the long - term futures have more uncertainties. Attention should be paid to the acquisition strategy of large oil mills [219].
国泰君安期货研究周报-20251207
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-12-07 12:45