南华期货钢材产业周报：原料端让利，关注宏观扰动，下方空间有限-20251207

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall finished steel is supported by raw material costs and policy expectations. With raw material price concessions, profits are gradually improving, and the market may pre - trade market expectations. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. The operating range for rebar may be between 3000 - 3300, and for hot - rolled coils between 3200 - 3500. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking speed of steel, downstream consumption, and whether there are any super - expected policies regarding steel in the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference [2]. - The supply - demand balance of steel products is marginally improving, but there are still negative factors such as weakening basis, poor peak - season performance of steel, high inventory of coil and plate products, and re - accumulation of port iron ore inventory [14][16]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Last week, steel prices fluctuated strongly. The macro - sentiment in the market was positive due to the upcoming Fed interest - rate decision meeting and domestic macro - meetings. However, the continuous inventory accumulation at iron ore ports, high iron ore valuation, increased supply surplus of coking coal under the production - cut logic, and the expected price cut of coke limited the upward space of finished steel [1]. - Last week, the supply and demand of the five major steel products both decreased, and the inventory continued to be slowly de - stocked. The supply - demand balance is marginally improving. The profits of blast furnaces and electric furnaces are gradually improving, mainly due to the concessions from the furnace - charge end. The production - cut intensity of steel may gradually weaken [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: Range - bound oscillation. The operating range for rebar may be between 3000 - 3300, and for hot - rolled coils between 3200 - 3500. - Month - spread strategy: With the marginal improvement of the supply - demand balance of finished steel, the profit - loss ratio of positive spreads is relatively high. - Hedging and arbitrage strategy: Narrow the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar [9]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Rebar and hot - rolled coil price range forecasts: The 01 - contract monthly range forecast for rebar is 2900 - 3300 with a current volatility of 9.26% and a volatility percentile of 7.0%; for hot - rolled coils, it is 3100 - 3500 with a current volatility of 7.39% and a volatility percentile of 0.10% [10]. - Rebar risk - management strategy recommendations: For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about steel price declines, enterprises can short rebar or hot - rolled coil futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 30%. They can also sell call options to reduce capital costs. For procurement management, when the regular inventory for procurement is low, enterprises can buy rebar or hot - rolled coil futures to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 30%, and sell put options to collect premiums [10]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Important Information and Next - Week Concerns 3.2.1 Important Information - Positive information: Market expectations for policies, marginal improvement in the supply - demand balance of finished steel, decline in coking coal prices benefiting finished steel, and gradual improvement in blast - furnace and electric - furnace profits [15]. - Negative information: Weakening basis, poor peak - season performance of steel, significant decline in steel - mill profit margins, re - accumulation of port iron ore inventory, and high inventory of coil and plate products [14][16]. - Spot - trading information: Market policy expectations, marginal improvement in the supply - demand balance of finished steel, coking coal price decline benefiting finished steel, and gradual improvement in blast - furnace and electric - furnace profits [15]. 3.2.2 Next - Week Important Events to Watch - The Central Economic Work Conference will be held on December 11 - 12. - The Fed interest - rate decision meeting will be held next Thursday [24]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation - Basis: The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils shows certain seasonal characteristics. - Coil - rebar spread: The spot coil - rebar spread continues to narrow, and the futures coil - rebar spread may also continue to narrow. - Term structure: The term structure of rebar changes little and remains in a deep Contango (C) structure. The term structure of hot - rolled coils may change back to the previous B structure from the newly - formed C structure. - Month - spread structure: The month - spread of rebar and hot - rolled coils also shows seasonal characteristics [23][30]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Up - and Down - Stream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The profitability rate of steel mills has dropped significantly, falling below 40%. However, the profits of blast furnaces and electric furnaces are marginally improving, and the motivation for the five major steel products to cut production may gradually weaken [43]. - Various steel products' profits, such as the immediate profits of long - process large - scale rebar and hot - rolled coils, and the profits with raw - material lags, show different trends over time [44]. 3.4.2 Export Profit Tracking - The export profit of hot - rolled coils leads the export volume by 2 months. There are also relationships between the export profit of hot - rolled coils and other factors such as the difference between overseas and Chinese hot - rolled coil prices and steel export orders [62]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - In the week of December 5, 2025, the production of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased compared to the previous week. The inventory of long - process steel mills' rebar decreased, while that of short - process steel mills increased slightly. The daily average molten - iron output of 247 steel mills and the daily consumption of scrap steel by 255 steel mills also decreased [86][87]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - The estimated amount of molten iron plus scrap steel shows a downward trend. The production of rebar and hot - rolled coils is affected by factors such as maintenance of blast furnaces and the profit of long - process large - scale rebar [93][96]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The consumption of steel products shows certain seasonal characteristics. The consumption forecasts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, and other steel products are provided, and the inventory of various steel products and their inventory - to - sales ratios also show different trends [116][131].