国泰君安期货·能源化工：尿素周度报告-20251207

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The view on urea this week is a fluctuating decline. In the short term, the driving force is neutral. The futures price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate, with support mainly coming from continuous purchases in the Northeast. The fundamental driving force of urea is currently neutral, and the continuous destocking of explicit inventory supports the price. In terms of valuation, the spot trading slowed down from Thursday to Sunday, and there may be policy pressure. The upper resistance level for the 01 contract is 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton, and the lower static support is 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton [2]. - For trading strategies, the price is expected to decline weakly as it approaches the upper limit of valuation with weakening trading volume. The 1 - 5 month spread is gradually entering a fluctuating pattern, and it is recommended to take a long position in the 5 - 9 spread when the price is low after the premium of the 05 contract is compressed. There is no cross - variety strategy for now [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Capacity: The expansion pattern of urea production capacity continued in 2025. In 2024, the total new production capacity was 3920,000 tons, and in 2025, it was 6640,000 tons. There are also plans for new production capacity in 2026 [23]. - Production: This week (20251127 - 1203), the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.3851 million tons, a decrease of 31,900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.25%. Next week, the weekly output of Chinese urea is expected to be around 1.37 million tons, a slight decrease from this period. The production profit is at the break - even point, and the daily output of urea remains at a high level [2][26]. - Cost: Raw material prices have stabilized, and the cash - flow cost line of factories has increased. The cash - flow cost and full cost of synthetic ammonia and urea in fixed - bed factories in Shanxi have been calculated, and the cash - flow cost of urea production using the gas - flow bed method has also been presented [29]. - Profit: The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state [34]. - Net Import (Export): During the reserve period, export policies are tightened. The export volume of urea in 2025 shows an increasing trend, and the export profit of small - particle urea is also presented [40]. Demand - Agricultural Demand: Agricultural demand is seasonally strengthening. High - standard farmland construction has led to an increase in the demand for urea from corn. The demand for agricultural fertilizers varies by region and season [46][49]. - Industrial Demand - Compound Fertilizer: The fundamentals of compound fertilizers are presented through indicators such as production cost, inventory, production profit, and capacity utilization rate [53][54][55]. - Melamine: The production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate of melamine in Shandong are shown [57][59]. - Real Estate and Panels: The demand for panels from the real estate industry has limited support, but panel exports are resilient, as shown by data on panel export volume, real estate completion area, and construction area [61]. Inventory - Factory inventory: On December 3, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.2905 million tons, a decrease of 73,400 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 5.38%. The inventory of enterprises in some provinces decreased, while that in others increased [2][67]. - Port inventory: As of December 4, 2025 (week 49), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 105,000 tons, an increase of 5000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 5%. The current port collection rhythm is still slow [2][67]. International Urea - International urea prices are presented through the FOB prices of large - particle urea in China, the Baltic Sea, and the Middle East, as well as the CFR price of large - particle urea in Brazil [71][72][73].