国泰君安期货·能源化工：甲醇周度报告-20251207

Report Overview - Report Title: Methanol Weekly Report - Report Date: December 07, 2025 - Analyst: Huang Tianyuan, Yang Honghan 1. Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the methanol industry is "Oscillating under Pressure" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, methanol destocking slows down, and with stable spot trading, there is an expected inventory build - up at ports in December, leading to a weak short - term performance. In the medium - term, high domestic supply pressure for the 01 contract remains the main issue, limiting the upside price potential in December. In 2026, there is an expected decline in methanol imports in Q1, potentially leading to a decrease in port inventories and marginal improvement in the overall fundamentals [3] - Currently, the MTO fundamentals are weak, and the production profit is continuously compressed. The 2150 - 2200 yuan/ton range is a strong fundamental resistance level. If methanol prices continue to rebound, the probability of negative feedback from MTO will increase. The lower valuation of methanol mainly refers to the cash - flow cost line of coal - based methanol plants in Henan. Due to the upward shift of coal prices in Q4, the cash - flow cost line of coal - based methanol has stabilized around 2000 - 2050 yuan/ton, providing support to the lower end of methanol valuation [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Spreads - Multiple charts show historical trends of methanol's basis, monthly spreads (such as 1 - 5, 5 - 9), domestic and international spot prices, and port - inland price differentials [7][11][15] 3.2 Supply - New Capacity: In 2024, China added 400 million tons of methanol production capacity, and in 2025, it added 830 million tons. Overseas, in 2024, there was 355 million tons of new capacity, and in 2025, 165 million tons are expected to be added [23] - Maintenance: Multiple companies had maintenance plans from October to December 2025, resulting in various levels of production losses [26] - Production and Capacity Utilization: This week (20251128 - 1204), China's methanol production was 2,023,465 tons, a decrease of 50 tons from last week, and the capacity utilization rate was 89.092%, a 0.002% decrease. Next week, production is expected to reach about 2.0382 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be around 89.74% [3] - Import - related: Charts show historical trends of China's methanol import volume, import cost, arrival volume, and import profit [36][37][38][39] - Cost and Profit: Charts present the production costs and profits of different methanol production processes (coal - based, coke - oven gas - based, natural gas - based) in different regions [41][46] 3.3 Demand - Downstream Capacity Utilization: Different downstream industries of methanol (such as MTO, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE) have different capacity utilization trends. For example, Ningbo Fude's MTO plant is expected to shut down for maintenance, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to decrease [3] - Downstream Profit: The production profits of different downstream industries (such as MTO, formaldehyde, MTBE, glacial acetic acid) in different regions are presented in charts [57][62] - Procurement Volume: Charts show the procurement volumes of different downstream industries (MTO, traditional downstream) in different regions [66][71] - Raw Material Inventory: Charts display the raw material inventories of traditional downstream industries in different regions [76] 3.4 Inventory - Factory Inventory: Charts show the historical trends of methanol factory inventories in China and different regions (East, Northwest, Inner Mongolia) [81] - Port Inventory: Charts show the historical trends of methanol port inventories in China and different regions (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong) [87]